The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision follows its July 25 basis point cut that brought the key rate to 14 percent. Trader consensus for no change at 68 percent reflects the intermediate nature of the meeting, which typically avoids major forecast revisions, combined with limited August inflation data and fiscal uncertainties ahead of October budget updates. Recent price acceleration has been viewed as largely one-off and tied to fuel and seasonal factors, while underlying seasonally adjusted measures remain in the 4–5 percent annualized range. A 32 percent probability of a decrease aligns with the gradual easing cycle, moderate economic growth, and recent weekly deflation readings, though elevated inflation expectations and pro-inflationary fiscal risks continue to support caution. An increase remains remote at under 1 percent absent sustained second-round effects.