OpenAI holds a narrow market-implied edge at 51% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end-September 2026, with a broad cluster of labs near 50% and Anthropic at 42.5%, reflecting tight competition among frontier large language models on this contamination-resistant benchmark. OpenAI's GPT-5.x and o-series variants have demonstrated leading or near-leading scores on recent math evaluations such as FrontierMath and MATH, driven by advances in reasoning chains and tool use that translate to LiveBench's dynamic question sets. Rivals including Anthropic's Claude Opus line, Moonshot's Kimi models, and releases from Alibaba, Z.ai, and DeepSeek maintain strong positioning through targeted math training and high performance on algebra, geometry, and competition-style problems. With only weeks until resolution, trader consensus hinges on any final model updates or LiveBench refreshes that could alter category rankings before the snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 51%
Anthropic 43%
Moonshot 1.0%
Thinky <1%
$24,990 Vol.
$24,990 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
51%
Anthropic
43%
Moonshot
1%
Thinky
1%
Tencent
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Amazon
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 51%
Anthropic 43%
Moonshot 1.0%
Thinky <1%
$24,990 Vol.
$24,990 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$7,861 Vol.
51%
Anthropic
$5,049 Vol.
43%
Moonshot
$644 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$659 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$648 Vol.
1%
Meta
$599 Vol.
1%
$638 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$650 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$689 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$700 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$611 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$670 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$641 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$609 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$589 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$569 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$614 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$639 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$737 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$594 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$584 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a narrow market-implied edge at 51% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end-September 2026, with a broad cluster of labs near 50% and Anthropic at 42.5%, reflecting tight competition among frontier large language models on this contamination-resistant benchmark. OpenAI's GPT-5.x and o-series variants have demonstrated leading or near-leading scores on recent math evaluations such as FrontierMath and MATH, driven by advances in reasoning chains and tool use that translate to LiveBench's dynamic question sets. Rivals including Anthropic's Claude Opus line, Moonshot's Kimi models, and releases from Alibaba, Z.ai, and DeepSeek maintain strong positioning through targeted math training and high performance on algebra, geometry, and competition-style problems. With only weeks until resolution, trader consensus hinges on any final model updates or LiveBench refreshes that could alter category rankings before the snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$24,990End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a narrow market-implied edge at 51% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end-September 2026, with a broad cluster of labs near 50% and Anthropic at 42.5%, reflecting tight competition among frontier large language models on this contamination-resistant benchmark. OpenAI's GPT-5.x and o-series variants have demonstrated leading or near-leading scores on recent math evaluations such as FrontierMath and MATH, driven by advances in reasoning chains and tool use that translate to LiveBench's dynamic question sets. Rivals including Anthropic's Claude Opus line, Moonshot's Kimi models, and releases from Alibaba, Z.ai, and DeepSeek maintain strong positioning through targeted math training and high performance on algebra, geometry, and competition-style problems. With only weeks until resolution, trader consensus hinges on any final model updates or LiveBench refreshes that could alter category rankings before the snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$24,990End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds a narrow market-implied edge at 51% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end-September 2026, with a broad cluster of labs near 50% and Anthropic at 42.5%, reflecting tight competition among frontier large language models on this contamination-resistant benchmark. OpenAI's GPT-5.x and o-series variants have demonstrated leading or near-leading scores on recent math evaluations such as FrontierMath and MATH, driven by advances in reasoning chains and tool use that translate to LiveBench's dynamic question sets. Rivals including Anthropic's Claude Opus line, Moonshot's Kimi models, and releases from Alibaba, Z.ai, and DeepSeek maintain strong positioning through targeted math training and high performance on algebra, geometry, and competition-style problems. With only weeks until resolution, trader consensus hinges on any final model updates or LiveBench refreshes that could alter category rankings before the snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions