**OpenAI holds a commanding 97.7% market-implied probability** for fielding the top model on LiveBench Mathematics at the end of August 2026, reflecting broad trader consensus backed by real capital. This positioning stems from the GPT-5 family and o-series models (including o3-mini) repeatedly posting the highest scores on contamination-resistant math tasks covering algebra, geometry, number theory, and calculus. These models benefit from scaled test-time compute, advanced chain-of-thought reasoning, and targeted training data that deliver consistent edges on dynamic benchmarks like LiveBench. Recent releases and incremental gains in frontier math performance have reinforced this lead, outpacing competitors on verified snapshots through late August. Other labs trail significantly in market pricing—Anthropic at just 2.5% and nearly all others at 0.1%—as no rival has demonstrated a decisive overtake on the specific LiveBench math category. Realistic challenges remain narrow but possible before the August 31 resolution: a surprise high-performing release from Anthropic, Moonshot (Kimi), DeepSeek, or Alibaba/Qwen could shift the leaderboard if it leverages fresh questions effectively. Last-minute model updates or scoring adjustments on livebench.ai also introduce some uncertainty, though OpenAI’s depth across multiple variants makes a reversal unlikely without major new evidence. Traders are pricing in the current hierarchy as durable through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 97.6%
Anthropic 2.4%
Mistral <1%
Meituan <1%
$23,818 Vol.
$23,818 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
98%
Anthropic
2%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
OpenAI 97.6%
Anthropic 2.4%
Mistral <1%
Meituan <1%
$23,818 Vol.
$23,818 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
$7,331 Vol.
98%
Anthropic
$4,032 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$382 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$616 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$376 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$446 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$671 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$769 Vol.
<1%
$691 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$569 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,238 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$582 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$902 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$582 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$682 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$568 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$488 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$936 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$781 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$712 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$463 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”**OpenAI holds a commanding 97.7% market-implied probability** for fielding the top model on LiveBench Mathematics at the end of August 2026, reflecting broad trader consensus backed by real capital. This positioning stems from the GPT-5 family and o-series models (including o3-mini) repeatedly posting the highest scores on contamination-resistant math tasks covering algebra, geometry, number theory, and calculus. These models benefit from scaled test-time compute, advanced chain-of-thought reasoning, and targeted training data that deliver consistent edges on dynamic benchmarks like LiveBench.
Recent releases and incremental gains in frontier math performance have reinforced this lead, outpacing competitors on verified snapshots through late August. Other labs trail significantly in market pricing—Anthropic at just 2.5% and nearly all others at 0.1%—as no rival has demonstrated a decisive overtake on the specific LiveBench math category.
Realistic challenges remain narrow but possible before the August 31 resolution: a surprise high-performing release from Anthropic, Moonshot (Kimi), DeepSeek, or Alibaba/Qwen could shift the leaderboard if it leverages fresh questions effectively. Last-minute model updates or scoring adjustments on livebench.ai also introduce some uncertainty, though OpenAI’s depth across multiple variants makes a reversal unlikely without major new evidence. Traders are pricing in the current hierarchy as durable through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$23,818End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”**OpenAI holds a commanding 97.7% market-implied probability** for fielding the top model on LiveBench Mathematics at the end of August 2026, reflecting broad trader consensus backed by real capital. This positioning stems from the GPT-5 family and o-series models (including o3-mini) repeatedly posting the highest scores on contamination-resistant math tasks covering algebra, geometry, number theory, and calculus. These models benefit from scaled test-time compute, advanced chain-of-thought reasoning, and targeted training data that deliver consistent edges on dynamic benchmarks like LiveBench.
Recent releases and incremental gains in frontier math performance have reinforced this lead, outpacing competitors on verified snapshots through late August. Other labs trail significantly in market pricing—Anthropic at just 2.5% and nearly all others at 0.1%—as no rival has demonstrated a decisive overtake on the specific LiveBench math category.
Realistic challenges remain narrow but possible before the August 31 resolution: a surprise high-performing release from Anthropic, Moonshot (Kimi), DeepSeek, or Alibaba/Qwen could shift the leaderboard if it leverages fresh questions effectively. Last-minute model updates or scoring adjustments on livebench.ai also introduce some uncertainty, though OpenAI’s depth across multiple variants makes a reversal unlikely without major new evidence. Traders are pricing in the current hierarchy as durable through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$23,818End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...**OpenAI holds a commanding 97.7% market-implied probability** for fielding the top model on LiveBench Mathematics at the end of August 2026, reflecting broad trader consensus backed by real capital. This positioning stems from the GPT-5 family and o-series models (including o3-mini) repeatedly posting the highest scores on contamination-resistant math tasks covering algebra, geometry, number theory, and calculus. These models benefit from scaled test-time compute, advanced chain-of-thought reasoning, and targeted training data that deliver consistent edges on dynamic benchmarks like LiveBench. Recent releases and incremental gains in frontier math performance have reinforced this lead, outpacing competitors on verified snapshots through late August. Other labs trail significantly in market pricing—Anthropic at just 2.5% and nearly all others at 0.1%—as no rival has demonstrated a decisive overtake on the specific LiveBench math category. Realistic challenges remain narrow but possible before the August 31 resolution: a surprise high-performing release from Anthropic, Moonshot (Kimi), DeepSeek, or Alibaba/Qwen could shift the leaderboard if it leverages fresh questions effectively. Last-minute model updates or scoring adjustments on livebench.ai also introduce some uncertainty, though OpenAI’s depth across multiple variants makes a reversal unlikely without major new evidence. Traders are pricing in the current hierarchy as durable through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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