Recent multiple outages across Claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models like Opus 5 and Fable 5 in August 2026 have driven trader focus on Anthropic's infrastructure strain, with demand growth outpacing capacity despite partnerships for new compute. Frequent elevated error incidents and login disruptions reflect scaling pressures typical of leading large language model providers, creating uncertainty over September reliability. Market-implied odds cluster around 8-13 outage days because traders weigh ongoing stabilization efforts against historical patterns of weekly issues, with key swing factors including any major model releases or capacity expansions that could shift daily downtime frequency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 41%
11-13 29%
5-7 24%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
4%
5-7
24%
8-10
49%
11-13
29%
14+
7%
8-10 41%
11-13 29%
5-7 24%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$0 Vol.
4%
5-7
$5 Vol.
24%
8-10
$5 Vol.
49%
11-13
$5 Vol.
29%
14+
$93 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent multiple outages across Claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models like Opus 5 and Fable 5 in August 2026 have driven trader focus on Anthropic's infrastructure strain, with demand growth outpacing capacity despite partnerships for new compute. Frequent elevated error incidents and login disruptions reflect scaling pressures typical of leading large language model providers, creating uncertainty over September reliability. Market-implied odds cluster around 8-13 outage days because traders weigh ongoing stabilization efforts against historical patterns of weekly issues, with key swing factors including any major model releases or capacity expansions that could shift daily downtime frequency.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent multiple outages across Claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models like Opus 5 and Fable 5 in August 2026 have driven trader focus on Anthropic's infrastructure strain, with demand growth outpacing capacity despite partnerships for new compute. Frequent elevated error incidents and login disruptions reflect scaling pressures typical of leading large language model providers, creating uncertainty over September reliability. Market-implied odds cluster around 8-13 outage days because traders weigh ongoing stabilization efforts against historical patterns of weekly issues, with key swing factors including any major model releases or capacity expansions that could shift daily downtime frequency.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent multiple outages across Claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and models like Opus 5 and Fable 5 in August 2026 have driven trader focus on Anthropic's infrastructure strain, with demand growth outpacing capacity despite partnerships for new compute. Frequent elevated error incidents and login disruptions reflect scaling pressures typical of leading large language model providers, creating uncertainty over September reliability. Market-implied odds cluster around 8-13 outage days because traders weigh ongoing stabilization efforts against historical patterns of weekly issues, with key swing factors including any major model releases or capacity expansions that could shift daily downtime frequency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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