Google leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end of September, driven by its recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release, Gemma updates, and leadership elevation of Demis Hassabis, which bolster distribution and robotics advantages amid a crowded field. Many other outcomes clustered near 50% highlight tight competition, with Anthropic’s Claude models dominating current leaderboards on benchmarks like reasoning and coding, OpenAI advancing GPT-5.6 variants, and strong showings from Meta, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and DeepSeek agents. Key differentiators include model capabilities in agents and multimodality, open-weight momentum, enterprise adoption, and safety frameworks, with no single lab pulling decisively ahead before the September resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 59%
Meta 11.4%
Alibaba 10.6%
OpenAI 5.7%
$46,503 Vol.
$46,503 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
59%
Meta
11%
Alibaba
11%
OpenAI
6%
Anthropic
5%
SpaceXAI
2%
Z.ai
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Moonshot
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Google 59%
Meta 11.4%
Alibaba 10.6%
OpenAI 5.7%
$46,503 Vol.
$46,503 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$8,260 Vol.
59%
Meta
$2,135 Vol.
11%
Alibaba
$11,625 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$2,207 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$2,120 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$1,783 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$1,593 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$1,560 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,370 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,410 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,287 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,298 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,425 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$943 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$477 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end of September, driven by its recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release, Gemma updates, and leadership elevation of Demis Hassabis, which bolster distribution and robotics advantages amid a crowded field. Many other outcomes clustered near 50% highlight tight competition, with Anthropic’s Claude models dominating current leaderboards on benchmarks like reasoning and coding, OpenAI advancing GPT-5.6 variants, and strong showings from Meta, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and DeepSeek agents. Key differentiators include model capabilities in agents and multimodality, open-weight momentum, enterprise adoption, and safety frameworks, with no single lab pulling decisively ahead before the September resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$46,503End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end of September, driven by its recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release, Gemma updates, and leadership elevation of Demis Hassabis, which bolster distribution and robotics advantages amid a crowded field. Many other outcomes clustered near 50% highlight tight competition, with Anthropic’s Claude models dominating current leaderboards on benchmarks like reasoning and coding, OpenAI advancing GPT-5.6 variants, and strong showings from Meta, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and DeepSeek agents. Key differentiators include model capabilities in agents and multimodality, open-weight momentum, enterprise adoption, and safety frameworks, with no single lab pulling decisively ahead before the September resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$46,503End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end of September, driven by its recent Gemini 3.7 Flash release, Gemma updates, and leadership elevation of Demis Hassabis, which bolster distribution and robotics advantages amid a crowded field. Many other outcomes clustered near 50% highlight tight competition, with Anthropic’s Claude models dominating current leaderboards on benchmarks like reasoning and coding, OpenAI advancing GPT-5.6 variants, and strong showings from Meta, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and DeepSeek agents. Key differentiators include model capabilities in agents and multimodality, open-weight momentum, enterprise adoption, and safety frameworks, with no single lab pulling decisively ahead before the September resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions