Google and Meta trade near parity as the leading contenders for third place behind Anthropic and OpenAI, with market-implied odds reflecting tight benchmark convergence and recent model releases. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash and specialized variants have posted gains on coding and agentic benchmarks, while Meta’s Muse Spark series and open-weight drops like Muse Glimmer underscore rapid iteration and accessibility advantages. Chinese labs including Alibaba and Moonshot continue narrowing gaps through cost-efficient releases such as Qwen and Kimi K3, yet trader consensus still favors established U.S. scaling. With September resolution approaching, any new capability demonstrations or leaderboard shifts could quickly reorder probabilities among the tightly grouped mid-tier players.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 29%
Meta 25.4%
Alibaba 13%
OpenAI 9%
$45,686 Vol.
$45,686 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
29%
Meta
25%
Alibaba
13%
OpenAI
9%
Baidu
5%
Moonshot
5%
Z.ai
4%
Anthropic
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Microsoft
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Google 29%
Meta 25.4%
Alibaba 13%
OpenAI 9%
$45,686 Vol.
$45,686 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$22,058 Vol.
29%
Meta
$3,593 Vol.
25%
Alibaba
$5,530 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$1,444 Vol.
9%
Baidu
$847 Vol.
5%
Moonshot
$971 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$803 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$804 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$876 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$813 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$822 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$718 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$750 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$853 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$790 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$800 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$714 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google and Meta trade near parity as the leading contenders for third place behind Anthropic and OpenAI, with market-implied odds reflecting tight benchmark convergence and recent model releases. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash and specialized variants have posted gains on coding and agentic benchmarks, while Meta’s Muse Spark series and open-weight drops like Muse Glimmer underscore rapid iteration and accessibility advantages. Chinese labs including Alibaba and Moonshot continue narrowing gaps through cost-efficient releases such as Qwen and Kimi K3, yet trader consensus still favors established U.S. scaling. With September resolution approaching, any new capability demonstrations or leaderboard shifts could quickly reorder probabilities among the tightly grouped mid-tier players.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$45,686End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google and Meta trade near parity as the leading contenders for third place behind Anthropic and OpenAI, with market-implied odds reflecting tight benchmark convergence and recent model releases. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash and specialized variants have posted gains on coding and agentic benchmarks, while Meta’s Muse Spark series and open-weight drops like Muse Glimmer underscore rapid iteration and accessibility advantages. Chinese labs including Alibaba and Moonshot continue narrowing gaps through cost-efficient releases such as Qwen and Kimi K3, yet trader consensus still favors established U.S. scaling. With September resolution approaching, any new capability demonstrations or leaderboard shifts could quickly reorder probabilities among the tightly grouped mid-tier players.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$45,686End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google and Meta trade near parity as the leading contenders for third place behind Anthropic and OpenAI, with market-implied odds reflecting tight benchmark convergence and recent model releases. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash and specialized variants have posted gains on coding and agentic benchmarks, while Meta’s Muse Spark series and open-weight drops like Muse Glimmer underscore rapid iteration and accessibility advantages. Chinese labs including Alibaba and Moonshot continue narrowing gaps through cost-efficient releases such as Qwen and Kimi K3, yet trader consensus still favors established U.S. scaling. With September resolution approaching, any new capability demonstrations or leaderboard shifts could quickly reorder probabilities among the tightly grouped mid-tier players.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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