Alibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-Max release has driven its 57.5% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-September, with strong math-specific Elo gains that place multiple Qwen variants just behind Anthropic’s Claude models and ahead of most rivals. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates have lifted its math category standing but remain concentrated in flash-tier entries, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants lead certain academic benchmarks yet trail on live arena votes. The crowded 45–55% cluster for other labs reflects tight score margins, rapid iteration cycles, and uncertainty over whether any single September release can reorder the top six labs before resolution. Traders are watching for new capability demonstrations that could shift human-preference votes in this high-variance reasoning category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 58%
OpenAI 20%
Google 14%
Moonshot 6.0%
$31,755 Vol.
$31,755 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
58%
OpenAI
20%
14%
Moonshot
6%
Meta
5%
Z.ai
5%
Baidu
4%
Anthropic
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
MiniMax
1%
Microsoft
1%
Mistral
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 58%
OpenAI 20%
Google 14%
Moonshot 6.0%
$31,755 Vol.
$31,755 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
$7,814 Vol.
58%
OpenAI
$4,325 Vol.
20%
$3,310 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$865 Vol.
6%
Meta
$868 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$876 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$1,526 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$1,962 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$892 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$1,743 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$825 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$846 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$868 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$814 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$793 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$713 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$606 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$575 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$837 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$698 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-Max release has driven its 57.5% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-September, with strong math-specific Elo gains that place multiple Qwen variants just behind Anthropic’s Claude models and ahead of most rivals. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates have lifted its math category standing but remain concentrated in flash-tier entries, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants lead certain academic benchmarks yet trail on live arena votes. The crowded 45–55% cluster for other labs reflects tight score margins, rapid iteration cycles, and uncertainty over whether any single September release can reorder the top six labs before resolution. Traders are watching for new capability demonstrations that could shift human-preference votes in this high-variance reasoning category.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$31,755End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-Max release has driven its 57.5% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-September, with strong math-specific Elo gains that place multiple Qwen variants just behind Anthropic’s Claude models and ahead of most rivals. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates have lifted its math category standing but remain concentrated in flash-tier entries, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants lead certain academic benchmarks yet trail on live arena votes. The crowded 45–55% cluster for other labs reflects tight score margins, rapid iteration cycles, and uncertainty over whether any single September release can reorder the top six labs before resolution. Traders are watching for new capability demonstrations that could shift human-preference votes in this high-variance reasoning category.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$31,755End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-Max release has driven its 57.5% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-September, with strong math-specific Elo gains that place multiple Qwen variants just behind Anthropic’s Claude models and ahead of most rivals. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash updates have lifted its math category standing but remain concentrated in flash-tier entries, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants lead certain academic benchmarks yet trail on live arena votes. The crowded 45–55% cluster for other labs reflects tight score margins, rapid iteration cycles, and uncertainty over whether any single September release can reorder the top six labs before resolution. Traders are watching for new capability demonstrations that could shift human-preference votes in this high-variance reasoning category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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