Trader sentiment for the third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab by end of October shows tight competition, with Alibaba at 33% implied probability driven by consistent leadership from its Qwen series in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI at 22.5% and Google at 19.5% trail closely, reflecting recent large language model upgrades that have narrowed gaps in complex problem-solving tasks against rivals. Nvidia's 13.8% captures its foundational role in model training hardware, while lower odds for Anthropic and others highlight how incremental releases, benchmark gains, and developer ecosystem momentum can quickly shift positioning. The broad spread across many labs underscores rapid capability improvements and the risk that any lab could surge with a timely update before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Alibaba 33%
OpenAI 22%
Google 20%
Nvidia 13.2%
$25,460 Vol.
$25,460 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
33%
OpenAI
22%
20%
Nvidia
13%
Moonshot
4%
Anthropic
4%
Z.ai
2%
Meituan
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Tencent
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba 33%
OpenAI 22%
Google 20%
Nvidia 13.2%
$25,460 Vol.
$25,460 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
$9,140 Vol.
33%
OpenAI
$848 Vol.
22%
$8,283 Vol.
20%
Nvidia
$516 Vol.
13%
Moonshot
$551 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$368 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$634 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$764 Vol.
1%
Meta
$347 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$412 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$364 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$348 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$389 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$347 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$414 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$399 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$431 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$302 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$271 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$329 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment for the third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab by end of October shows tight competition, with Alibaba at 33% implied probability driven by consistent leadership from its Qwen series in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI at 22.5% and Google at 19.5% trail closely, reflecting recent large language model upgrades that have narrowed gaps in complex problem-solving tasks against rivals. Nvidia's 13.8% captures its foundational role in model training hardware, while lower odds for Anthropic and others highlight how incremental releases, benchmark gains, and developer ecosystem momentum can quickly shift positioning. The broad spread across many labs underscores rapid capability improvements and the risk that any lab could surge with a timely update before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$25,460End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment for the third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab by end of October shows tight competition, with Alibaba at 33% implied probability driven by consistent leadership from its Qwen series in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI at 22.5% and Google at 19.5% trail closely, reflecting recent large language model upgrades that have narrowed gaps in complex problem-solving tasks against rivals. Nvidia's 13.8% captures its foundational role in model training hardware, while lower odds for Anthropic and others highlight how incremental releases, benchmark gains, and developer ecosystem momentum can quickly shift positioning. The broad spread across many labs underscores rapid capability improvements and the risk that any lab could surge with a timely update before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$25,460End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab by end of October shows tight competition, with Alibaba at 33% implied probability driven by consistent leadership from its Qwen series in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI at 22.5% and Google at 19.5% trail closely, reflecting recent large language model upgrades that have narrowed gaps in complex problem-solving tasks against rivals. Nvidia's 13.8% captures its foundational role in model training hardware, while lower odds for Anthropic and others highlight how incremental releases, benchmark gains, and developer ecosystem momentum can quickly shift positioning. The broad spread across many labs underscores rapid capability improvements and the risk that any lab could surge with a timely update before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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