Recent repeated service disruptions for Anthropic’s Claude large language models have driven the strong market consensus around 8-10 downtime days in August. Multiple incidents, including a roughly three-hour outage on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and other models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork, plus earlier events on August 18, 19, and 20, have already produced several impacted days. Traders interpret these elevated error periods and partial outages as counting toward the total, with only days remaining and no signs of full stabilization yet. This pattern of instability in core AI infrastructure aligns with the 83.5% implied probability for the leading range while leaving limited room for extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 84%
5-7 6.0%
11-13 4.7%
14+ 3.4%
$32,768 Vol.
$32,768 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
5-7
6%
8-10
84%
11-13
5%
14+
3%
8-10 84%
5-7 6.0%
11-13 4.7%
14+ 3.4%
$32,768 Vol.
$32,768 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
5-7
$8,035 Vol.
6%
8-10
$7,077 Vol.
84%
11-13
$3,856 Vol.
5%
14+
$4,361 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent repeated service disruptions for Anthropic’s Claude large language models have driven the strong market consensus around 8-10 downtime days in August. Multiple incidents, including a roughly three-hour outage on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and other models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork, plus earlier events on August 18, 19, and 20, have already produced several impacted days. Traders interpret these elevated error periods and partial outages as counting toward the total, with only days remaining and no signs of full stabilization yet. This pattern of instability in core AI infrastructure aligns with the 83.5% implied probability for the leading range while leaving limited room for extremes.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$32,768End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent repeated service disruptions for Anthropic’s Claude large language models have driven the strong market consensus around 8-10 downtime days in August. Multiple incidents, including a roughly three-hour outage on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and other models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork, plus earlier events on August 18, 19, and 20, have already produced several impacted days. Traders interpret these elevated error periods and partial outages as counting toward the total, with only days remaining and no signs of full stabilization yet. This pattern of instability in core AI infrastructure aligns with the 83.5% implied probability for the leading range while leaving limited room for extremes.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$32,768End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent repeated service disruptions for Anthropic’s Claude large language models have driven the strong market consensus around 8-10 downtime days in August. Multiple incidents, including a roughly three-hour outage on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and other models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Claude Cowork, plus earlier events on August 18, 19, and 20, have already produced several impacted days. Traders interpret these elevated error periods and partial outages as counting toward the total, with only days remaining and no signs of full stabilization yet. This pattern of instability in core AI infrastructure aligns with the 83.5% implied probability for the leading range while leaving limited room for extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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