US officials maintain that the Strait of Hormuz remains an international waterway where mandatory transit fees or tolls violate longstanding maritime law, a position reinforced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and consistent administration statements. After President Trump briefly proposed a 20 percent US reimbursement fee tied to naval protection in mid-July 2026, the idea was quickly replaced by Gulf investment and trade arrangements. Negotiations following the June Islamabad Memorandum and its 60-day toll-free window have centered on Oman-Iran talks over future administration and services, with Washington and Gulf states rejecting any Iranian-controlled charging regime. Recent US sanctions on Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority and ongoing diplomatic efforts continue to shape the low implied probabilities for US collection of any fees or reimbursements by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS charges Hormuz fees by...?
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
$969,602 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
December 31
5%
$969,602 Vol.
August 31
$178,286 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$104,163 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.US officials maintain that the Strait of Hormuz remains an international waterway where mandatory transit fees or tolls violate longstanding maritime law, a position reinforced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and consistent administration statements. After President Trump briefly proposed a 20 percent US reimbursement fee tied to naval protection in mid-July 2026, the idea was quickly replaced by Gulf investment and trade arrangements. Negotiations following the June Islamabad Memorandum and its 60-day toll-free window have centered on Oman-Iran talks over future administration and services, with Washington and Gulf states rejecting any Iranian-controlled charging regime. Recent US sanctions on Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority and ongoing diplomatic efforts continue to shape the low implied probabilities for US collection of any fees or reimbursements by year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$969,602End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.US officials maintain that the Strait of Hormuz remains an international waterway where mandatory transit fees or tolls violate longstanding maritime law, a position reinforced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and consistent administration statements. After President Trump briefly proposed a 20 percent US reimbursement fee tied to naval protection in mid-July 2026, the idea was quickly replaced by Gulf investment and trade arrangements. Negotiations following the June Islamabad Memorandum and its 60-day toll-free window have centered on Oman-Iran talks over future administration and services, with Washington and Gulf states rejecting any Iranian-controlled charging regime. Recent US sanctions on Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority and ongoing diplomatic efforts continue to shape the low implied probabilities for US collection of any fees or reimbursements by year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$969,602End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US officials maintain that the Strait of Hormuz remains an international waterway where mandatory transit fees or tolls violate longstanding maritime law, a position reinforced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and consistent administration statements. After President Trump briefly proposed a 20 percent US reimbursement fee tied to naval protection in mid-July 2026, the idea was quickly replaced by Gulf investment and trade arrangements. Negotiations following the June Islamabad Memorandum and its 60-day toll-free window have centered on Oman-Iran talks over future administration and services, with Washington and Gulf states rejecting any Iranian-controlled charging regime. Recent US sanctions on Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority and ongoing diplomatic efforts continue to shape the low implied probabilities for US collection of any fees or reimbursements by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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