Russia's sustained military operations and refusal to engage in substantive negotiations, as stated by Ukrainian military intelligence on August 18, anchor trader expectations against a signed peace deal by August 31. Fundamental disagreements over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and Ukraine's alignment options have blocked progress despite U.S. mediation efforts and intermittent short ceasefires earlier in 2026. Battlefield dynamics, including ongoing strikes, show no de-escalation signals from Moscow that would enable rapid agreement. While last-minute diplomatic interventions or unforeseen concessions could theoretically shift the timeline, the entrenched positions and absence of recent breakthroughs sustain near-certain market consensus on "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$274,173 Vol.
$274,173 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$274,173 Vol.
$274,173 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's sustained military operations and refusal to engage in substantive negotiations, as stated by Ukrainian military intelligence on August 18, anchor trader expectations against a signed peace deal by August 31. Fundamental disagreements over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and Ukraine's alignment options have blocked progress despite U.S. mediation efforts and intermittent short ceasefires earlier in 2026. Battlefield dynamics, including ongoing strikes, show no de-escalation signals from Moscow that would enable rapid agreement. While last-minute diplomatic interventions or unforeseen concessions could theoretically shift the timeline, the entrenched positions and absence of recent breakthroughs sustain near-certain market consensus on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$274,173End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's sustained military operations and refusal to engage in substantive negotiations, as stated by Ukrainian military intelligence on August 18, anchor trader expectations against a signed peace deal by August 31. Fundamental disagreements over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and Ukraine's alignment options have blocked progress despite U.S. mediation efforts and intermittent short ceasefires earlier in 2026. Battlefield dynamics, including ongoing strikes, show no de-escalation signals from Moscow that would enable rapid agreement. While last-minute diplomatic interventions or unforeseen concessions could theoretically shift the timeline, the entrenched positions and absence of recent breakthroughs sustain near-certain market consensus on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$274,173End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's sustained military operations and refusal to engage in substantive negotiations, as stated by Ukrainian military intelligence on August 18, anchor trader expectations against a signed peace deal by August 31. Fundamental disagreements over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and Ukraine's alignment options have blocked progress despite U.S. mediation efforts and intermittent short ceasefires earlier in 2026. Battlefield dynamics, including ongoing strikes, show no de-escalation signals from Moscow that would enable rapid agreement. While last-minute diplomatic interventions or unforeseen concessions could theoretically shift the timeline, the entrenched positions and absence of recent breakthroughs sustain near-certain market consensus on "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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