Russia's consistent rejection of any ceasefire or territorial freeze short of its maximalist demands—full recognition of annexed regions, limits on Ukrainian sovereignty, and exclusion of NATO—remains the dominant factor behind traders' 96% consensus against a peace deal by October 31. Formal trilateral talks last occurred in early 2026 before stalling amid the US-Iran conflict, with subsequent Russian statements from Lavrov, Peskov, and Putin underscoring that military operations will continue until Moscow achieves its objectives. Ongoing frontline advances in Donetsk, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, and the Kremlin's focus on September Duma elections further reduce near-term diplomatic space. While a sudden US-brokered breakthrough or major battlefield reversal could theoretically compress timelines, the entrenched positions and absence of active high-level negotiations in the remaining window make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's consistent rejection of any ceasefire or territorial freeze short of its maximalist demands—full recognition of annexed regions, limits on Ukrainian sovereignty, and exclusion of NATO—remains the dominant factor behind traders' 96% consensus against a peace deal by October 31. Formal trilateral talks last occurred in early 2026 before stalling amid the US-Iran conflict, with subsequent Russian statements from Lavrov, Peskov, and Putin underscoring that military operations will continue until Moscow achieves its objectives. Ongoing frontline advances in Donetsk, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, and the Kremlin's focus on September Duma elections further reduce near-term diplomatic space. While a sudden US-brokered breakthrough or major battlefield reversal could theoretically compress timelines, the entrenched positions and absence of active high-level negotiations in the remaining window make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$44End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's consistent rejection of any ceasefire or territorial freeze short of its maximalist demands—full recognition of annexed regions, limits on Ukrainian sovereignty, and exclusion of NATO—remains the dominant factor behind traders' 96% consensus against a peace deal by October 31. Formal trilateral talks last occurred in early 2026 before stalling amid the US-Iran conflict, with subsequent Russian statements from Lavrov, Peskov, and Putin underscoring that military operations will continue until Moscow achieves its objectives. Ongoing frontline advances in Donetsk, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, and the Kremlin's focus on September Duma elections further reduce near-term diplomatic space. While a sudden US-brokered breakthrough or major battlefield reversal could theoretically compress timelines, the entrenched positions and absence of active high-level negotiations in the remaining window make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's consistent rejection of any ceasefire or territorial freeze short of its maximalist demands—full recognition of annexed regions, limits on Ukrainian sovereignty, and exclusion of NATO—remains the dominant factor behind traders' 96% consensus against a peace deal by October 31. Formal trilateral talks last occurred in early 2026 before stalling amid the US-Iran conflict, with subsequent Russian statements from Lavrov, Peskov, and Putin underscoring that military operations will continue until Moscow achieves its objectives. Ongoing frontline advances in Donetsk, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, and the Kremlin's focus on September Duma elections further reduce near-term diplomatic space. While a sudden US-brokered breakthrough or major battlefield reversal could theoretically compress timelines, the entrenched positions and absence of active high-level negotiations in the remaining window make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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