South Korea’s 2026 annual inflation market shows tight clustering around the 2.7–2.9% band at 32.8% implied probability, with 3.0%+ and 2.4–2.6% nearly as likely. July CPI eased to 2.8% year-over-year from 3.2% in June, below expectations, as transport costs moderated while core measures held near 2.5–2.6%. Upward pressures stem from elevated oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, lagged effects of earlier won weakness, and strengthening domestic demand amid semiconductor-led export growth now projected near 3.2%. The Bank of Korea’s July rate hike to 2.75% and ongoing tightening bias anchor expectations, yet the split in August policy forecasts highlights uncertainty over how quickly demand pressures will transmit to prices versus base effects and potential oil stabilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.7% to 2.9% 32.8%
3.0%+ 28.6%
2.4% to 2.6% 28.4%
2.1% to 2.3% 7.6%
$31,384 Vol.
$31,384 Vol.
<1.5%
3%
1.5% to 1.7%
3%
1.8% to 2.0%
3%
2.1% to 2.3%
8%
2.4% to 2.6%
28%
2.7% to 2.9%
33%
3.0%+
29%
2.7% to 2.9% 32.8%
3.0%+ 28.6%
2.4% to 2.6% 28.4%
2.1% to 2.3% 7.6%
$31,384 Vol.
$31,384 Vol.
<1.5%
3%
1.5% to 1.7%
3%
1.8% to 2.0%
3%
2.1% to 2.3%
8%
2.4% to 2.6%
28%
2.7% to 2.9%
33%
3.0%+
29%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Korea’s 2026 annual inflation market shows tight clustering around the 2.7–2.9% band at 32.8% implied probability, with 3.0%+ and 2.4–2.6% nearly as likely. July CPI eased to 2.8% year-over-year from 3.2% in June, below expectations, as transport costs moderated while core measures held near 2.5–2.6%. Upward pressures stem from elevated oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, lagged effects of earlier won weakness, and strengthening domestic demand amid semiconductor-led export growth now projected near 3.2%. The Bank of Korea’s July rate hike to 2.75% and ongoing tightening bias anchor expectations, yet the split in August policy forecasts highlights uncertainty over how quickly demand pressures will transmit to prices versus base effects and potential oil stabilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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