Recent Banxico forecasts anchor trader positioning for Mexico's 2026 headline inflation, with the central bank projecting a 3.5% year-end rate and convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027 after revising its GDP outlook upward to 1.5%. Current data show headline CPI easing to 3.26% in mid-August amid lower non-core pressures, while core remains elevated near 3.93% due to persistent services prices. Market-implied odds cluster around 3.5–4.5% as participants weigh upside risks from USMCA trade uncertainty, potential peso depreciation, geopolitical energy shocks, and climate-driven food costs against the policy rate pause at 6.50% and subdued domestic demand. Upcoming inflation releases and Banxico communications will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 33.8%
4.00% to 4.49% 25%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.8%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$65,714 Vol.
$65,714 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
2%
2.50% to 2.99%
8%
3.00% to 3.49%
21%
3.50% to 3.99%
34%
4.00% to 4.49%
25%
4.50% to 4.99%
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 33.8%
4.00% to 4.49% 25%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.8%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$65,714 Vol.
$65,714 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,111 Vol.
2%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
8%
3.00% to 3.49%
$28,970 Vol.
21%
3.50% to 3.99%
$4,113 Vol.
34%
4.00% to 4.49%
$13,091 Vol.
25%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,768 Vol.
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,454 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,313 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent Banxico forecasts anchor trader positioning for Mexico's 2026 headline inflation, with the central bank projecting a 3.5% year-end rate and convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027 after revising its GDP outlook upward to 1.5%. Current data show headline CPI easing to 3.26% in mid-August amid lower non-core pressures, while core remains elevated near 3.93% due to persistent services prices. Market-implied odds cluster around 3.5–4.5% as participants weigh upside risks from USMCA trade uncertainty, potential peso depreciation, geopolitical energy shocks, and climate-driven food costs against the policy rate pause at 6.50% and subdued domestic demand. Upcoming inflation releases and Banxico communications will likely refine these probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$65,714End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent Banxico forecasts anchor trader positioning for Mexico's 2026 headline inflation, with the central bank projecting a 3.5% year-end rate and convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027 after revising its GDP outlook upward to 1.5%. Current data show headline CPI easing to 3.26% in mid-August amid lower non-core pressures, while core remains elevated near 3.93% due to persistent services prices. Market-implied odds cluster around 3.5–4.5% as participants weigh upside risks from USMCA trade uncertainty, potential peso depreciation, geopolitical energy shocks, and climate-driven food costs against the policy rate pause at 6.50% and subdued domestic demand. Upcoming inflation releases and Banxico communications will likely refine these probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$65,714End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Banxico forecasts anchor trader positioning for Mexico's 2026 headline inflation, with the central bank projecting a 3.5% year-end rate and convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027 after revising its GDP outlook upward to 1.5%. Current data show headline CPI easing to 3.26% in mid-August amid lower non-core pressures, while core remains elevated near 3.93% due to persistent services prices. Market-implied odds cluster around 3.5–4.5% as participants weigh upside risks from USMCA trade uncertainty, potential peso depreciation, geopolitical energy shocks, and climate-driven food costs against the policy rate pause at 6.50% and subdued domestic demand. Upcoming inflation releases and Banxico communications will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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