Official observations from São Paulo weather stations recorded a minimum air temperature of 14°C overnight on August 25, 2026, matching the consensus of numerical weather models and the month's climatological average low near 12–14°C during the Southern Hemisphere winter. High pressure, light winds, and clear-to-partly cloudy skies limited radiational cooling while preventing stronger cold advection, keeping the reading within the narrow band expected for the date. The market-implied 97.5% probability on 14°C reflects this alignment of real-time data and historical precedent, with only remote scenarios such as a late model revision, station-specific microclimate anomaly, or measurement adjustment able to shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$11,786 Vol.
$11,786 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$11,786 Vol.
$11,786 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$436 Vol.
No
10°C
$251 Vol.
No
11°C
$99 Vol.
No
12°C
$387 Vol.
No
13°C
$108 Vol.
No
14°C
$270 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$4,071 Vol.
No
16°C
$3,199 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,275 Vol.
No
18°C
$480 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$210 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from São Paulo weather stations recorded a minimum air temperature of 14°C overnight on August 25, 2026, matching the consensus of numerical weather models and the month's climatological average low near 12–14°C during the Southern Hemisphere winter. High pressure, light winds, and clear-to-partly cloudy skies limited radiational cooling while preventing stronger cold advection, keeping the reading within the narrow band expected for the date. The market-implied 97.5% probability on 14°C reflects this alignment of real-time data and historical precedent, with only remote scenarios such as a late model revision, station-specific microclimate anomaly, or measurement adjustment able to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$11,786End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from São Paulo weather stations recorded a minimum air temperature of 14°C overnight on August 25, 2026, matching the consensus of numerical weather models and the month's climatological average low near 12–14°C during the Southern Hemisphere winter. High pressure, light winds, and clear-to-partly cloudy skies limited radiational cooling while preventing stronger cold advection, keeping the reading within the narrow band expected for the date. The market-implied 97.5% probability on 14°C reflects this alignment of real-time data and historical precedent, with only remote scenarios such as a late model revision, station-specific microclimate anomaly, or measurement adjustment able to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,786End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Official observations from São Paulo weather stations recorded a minimum air temperature of 14°C overnight on August 25, 2026, matching the consensus of numerical weather models and the month's climatological average low near 12–14°C during the Southern Hemisphere winter. High pressure, light winds, and clear-to-partly cloudy skies limited radiational cooling while preventing stronger cold advection, keeping the reading within the narrow band expected for the date. The market-implied 97.5% probability on 14°C reflects this alignment of real-time data and historical precedent, with only remote scenarios such as a late model revision, station-specific microclimate anomaly, or measurement adjustment able to shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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