**Recent forecast consensus from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and international models points to mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and scattered light rain or showers on August 30, which are expected to suppress maximum temperatures below late-August climatological norms of roughly 30–31°C.** Persistent cloud cover reduces incoming solar radiation while elevated humidity and recent northerly flow maintain cooler air masses, with model runs clustering daily highs in the mid-20s to high-20s Celsius. Hourly guidance from multiple providers shows peaks around 27–28°C under these conditions, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C+ outcomes that would require stronger insolation or a rapid shift in steering patterns. Traders are therefore weighting 26–28°C most heavily, reflecting the current model agreement on limited daytime heating rather than any extreme deviation or typhoon influence. Updated model runs and official JMA briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if clearer skies or altered wind patterns emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
27°C 35%
28°C 26%
26°C 20%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
20%
27°C
35%
28°C
26%
29°C
7%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 35%
28°C 26%
26°C 20%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
$190 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$213 Vol.
1%
25°C
$446 Vol.
7%
26°C
$786 Vol.
20%
27°C
$888 Vol.
35%
28°C
$858 Vol.
26%
29°C
$1,121 Vol.
7%
30°C
$392 Vol.
4%
31°C
$172 Vol.
2%
32°C
$751 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$416 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast consensus from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and international models points to mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and scattered light rain or showers on August 30, which are expected to suppress maximum temperatures below late-August climatological norms of roughly 30–31°C.**
Persistent cloud cover reduces incoming solar radiation while elevated humidity and recent northerly flow maintain cooler air masses, with model runs clustering daily highs in the mid-20s to high-20s Celsius. Hourly guidance from multiple providers shows peaks around 27–28°C under these conditions, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C+ outcomes that would require stronger insolation or a rapid shift in steering patterns.
Traders are therefore weighting 26–28°C most heavily, reflecting the current model agreement on limited daytime heating rather than any extreme deviation or typhoon influence. Updated model runs and official JMA briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if clearer skies or altered wind patterns emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,234End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast consensus from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and international models points to mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and scattered light rain or showers on August 30, which are expected to suppress maximum temperatures below late-August climatological norms of roughly 30–31°C.**
Persistent cloud cover reduces incoming solar radiation while elevated humidity and recent northerly flow maintain cooler air masses, with model runs clustering daily highs in the mid-20s to high-20s Celsius. Hourly guidance from multiple providers shows peaks around 27–28°C under these conditions, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C+ outcomes that would require stronger insolation or a rapid shift in steering patterns.
Traders are therefore weighting 26–28°C most heavily, reflecting the current model agreement on limited daytime heating rather than any extreme deviation or typhoon influence. Updated model runs and official JMA briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if clearer skies or altered wind patterns emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,234End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast consensus from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Met Office, and international models points to mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and scattered light rain or showers on August 30, which are expected to suppress maximum temperatures below late-August climatological norms of roughly 30–31°C.** Persistent cloud cover reduces incoming solar radiation while elevated humidity and recent northerly flow maintain cooler air masses, with model runs clustering daily highs in the mid-20s to high-20s Celsius. Hourly guidance from multiple providers shows peaks around 27–28°C under these conditions, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C+ outcomes that would require stronger insolation or a rapid shift in steering patterns. Traders are therefore weighting 26–28°C most heavily, reflecting the current model agreement on limited daytime heating rather than any extreme deviation or typhoon influence. Updated model runs and official JMA briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if clearer skies or altered wind patterns emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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