Recent official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and China Meteorological Administration indicate a daily high near 31–32°C amid widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity driven by residual influences from nearby tropical systems. These conditions suppress peak solar heating and explain the strong market-implied consensus at 32°C. Historical August baselines for Shenzhen average around 32°C, but enhanced monsoon moisture this week has already produced similar capped maxima on prior rainy days. Real-time station observations through late afternoon will resolve the outcome, as model runs show limited further intensification potential. Unexpected localized clearing or delayed convective activity could allow brief excursions above 32°C, though current guidance assigns low probability to such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$61,076 Vol.
$61,076 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$61,076 Vol.
$61,076 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$285 Vol.
No
26°C
$864 Vol.
No
27°C
$966 Vol.
No
28°C
$966 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,656 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,382 Vol.
No
31°C
$27,747 Vol.
No
32°C
$8,801 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$5,084 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,428 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$897 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and China Meteorological Administration indicate a daily high near 31–32°C amid widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity driven by residual influences from nearby tropical systems. These conditions suppress peak solar heating and explain the strong market-implied consensus at 32°C. Historical August baselines for Shenzhen average around 32°C, but enhanced monsoon moisture this week has already produced similar capped maxima on prior rainy days. Real-time station observations through late afternoon will resolve the outcome, as model runs show limited further intensification potential. Unexpected localized clearing or delayed convective activity could allow brief excursions above 32°C, though current guidance assigns low probability to such shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$61,076End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and China Meteorological Administration indicate a daily high near 31–32°C amid widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity driven by residual influences from nearby tropical systems. These conditions suppress peak solar heating and explain the strong market-implied consensus at 32°C. Historical August baselines for Shenzhen average around 32°C, but enhanced monsoon moisture this week has already produced similar capped maxima on prior rainy days. Real-time station observations through late afternoon will resolve the outcome, as model runs show limited further intensification potential. Unexpected localized clearing or delayed convective activity could allow brief excursions above 32°C, though current guidance assigns low probability to such shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$61,076End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent official forecasts from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and China Meteorological Administration indicate a daily high near 31–32°C amid widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity driven by residual influences from nearby tropical systems. These conditions suppress peak solar heating and explain the strong market-implied consensus at 32°C. Historical August baselines for Shenzhen average around 32°C, but enhanced monsoon moisture this week has already produced similar capped maxima on prior rainy days. Real-time station observations through late afternoon will resolve the outcome, as model runs show limited further intensification potential. Unexpected localized clearing or delayed convective activity could allow brief excursions above 32°C, though current guidance assigns low probability to such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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