Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which posted 56% on HLE with tools and 43.5–46.9% text-only on public leaderboards, has been the main catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward higher 2026 outcomes. Kimi K3 currently ranks among the top open models and leads several Chinese labs on the benchmark, benefiting from its 1M-token context, agentic tool use, and fine-tuning potential. Frontier HLE scores remain well below saturation at 64–65% for leaders like Claude Opus 5, leaving room for incremental Kimi gains through reasoning scaffolds or a potential K4 release before year-end. Traders are watching Moonshot’s pace of open releases and benchmark-specific optimizations against the 2,500 expert-level questions that reward genuine multi-domain reasoning over memorization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$30,155 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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$30,155 Vol.
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$8,381 Vol.
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$11,177 Vol.
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$3,973 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which posted 56% on HLE with tools and 43.5–46.9% text-only on public leaderboards, has been the main catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward higher 2026 outcomes. Kimi K3 currently ranks among the top open models and leads several Chinese labs on the benchmark, benefiting from its 1M-token context, agentic tool use, and fine-tuning potential. Frontier HLE scores remain well below saturation at 64–65% for leaders like Claude Opus 5, leaving room for incremental Kimi gains through reasoning scaffolds or a potential K4 release before year-end. Traders are watching Moonshot’s pace of open releases and benchmark-specific optimizations against the 2,500 expert-level questions that reward genuine multi-domain reasoning over memorization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$30,155End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which posted 56% on HLE with tools and 43.5–46.9% text-only on public leaderboards, has been the main catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward higher 2026 outcomes. Kimi K3 currently ranks among the top open models and leads several Chinese labs on the benchmark, benefiting from its 1M-token context, agentic tool use, and fine-tuning potential. Frontier HLE scores remain well below saturation at 64–65% for leaders like Claude Opus 5, leaving room for incremental Kimi gains through reasoning scaffolds or a potential K4 release before year-end. Traders are watching Moonshot’s pace of open releases and benchmark-specific optimizations against the 2,500 expert-level questions that reward genuine multi-domain reasoning over memorization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$30,155End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which posted 56% on HLE with tools and 43.5–46.9% text-only on public leaderboards, has been the main catalyst shifting trader sentiment toward higher 2026 outcomes. Kimi K3 currently ranks among the top open models and leads several Chinese labs on the benchmark, benefiting from its 1M-token context, agentic tool use, and fine-tuning potential. Frontier HLE scores remain well below saturation at 64–65% for leaders like Claude Opus 5, leaving room for incremental Kimi gains through reasoning scaffolds or a potential K4 release before year-end. Traders are watching Moonshot’s pace of open releases and benchmark-specific optimizations against the 2,500 expert-level questions that reward genuine multi-domain reasoning over memorization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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