Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 has driven recent trader attention by posting 62.1% on leading August 2026 HLE leaderboards, placing it within roughly two points of Anthropic’s top Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 entries while surpassing several GPT-5.4 configurations. The 2,500-question benchmark, built by academics to test multi-step reasoning across math, science, and humanities without easy retrieval shortcuts, remains far from saturated, with frontier scores clustered in the low-to-mid 60s. Meta’s superintelligence team continues iterating, with plans for additional releases including open-weight variants, and its models often deliver competitive pricing. Key swing factors through December 2026 include further scaling gains, tool-use enhancements, and whether rivals accelerate faster on this specific evaluation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,710 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
46%
60%+
27%
65%+
16%
70%+
8%
$22,710 Vol.
55%+
$15,341 Vol.
46%
60%+
$2,247 Vol.
27%
65%+
$3,567 Vol.
16%
70%+
$1,555 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 has driven recent trader attention by posting 62.1% on leading August 2026 HLE leaderboards, placing it within roughly two points of Anthropic’s top Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 entries while surpassing several GPT-5.4 configurations. The 2,500-question benchmark, built by academics to test multi-step reasoning across math, science, and humanities without easy retrieval shortcuts, remains far from saturated, with frontier scores clustered in the low-to-mid 60s. Meta’s superintelligence team continues iterating, with plans for additional releases including open-weight variants, and its models often deliver competitive pricing. Key swing factors through December 2026 include further scaling gains, tool-use enhancements, and whether rivals accelerate faster on this specific evaluation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,710End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 has driven recent trader attention by posting 62.1% on leading August 2026 HLE leaderboards, placing it within roughly two points of Anthropic’s top Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 entries while surpassing several GPT-5.4 configurations. The 2,500-question benchmark, built by academics to test multi-step reasoning across math, science, and humanities without easy retrieval shortcuts, remains far from saturated, with frontier scores clustered in the low-to-mid 60s. Meta’s superintelligence team continues iterating, with plans for additional releases including open-weight variants, and its models often deliver competitive pricing. Key swing factors through December 2026 include further scaling gains, tool-use enhancements, and whether rivals accelerate faster on this specific evaluation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$22,710End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 has driven recent trader attention by posting 62.1% on leading August 2026 HLE leaderboards, placing it within roughly two points of Anthropic’s top Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 entries while surpassing several GPT-5.4 configurations. The 2,500-question benchmark, built by academics to test multi-step reasoning across math, science, and humanities without easy retrieval shortcuts, remains far from saturated, with frontier scores clustered in the low-to-mid 60s. Meta’s superintelligence team continues iterating, with plans for additional releases including open-weight variants, and its models often deliver competitive pricing. Key swing factors through December 2026 include further scaling gains, tool-use enhancements, and whether rivals accelerate faster on this specific evaluation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
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Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
73%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
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Frequently Asked Questions