Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 currently top public HLE leaderboards at 64.7% and 64.5%, reflecting the lab’s edge in reasoning-focused training and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 sits close behind at ~62%, while OpenAI’s strongest GPT-5 variants trail in the mid-50s across Artificial Analysis and BenchLM snapshots. Scores have climbed sharply through 2026 as labs deploy chain-of-thought scaffolds, verification loops, and larger context windows, outpacing the benchmark’s original saturation timeline. Remaining catalysts include new frontier releases, multimodal or agentic extensions, and official Scale leaderboard updates through year-end that could shift the highest reported mark before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$39,846 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
74%
65%+
26%
70%+
15%
75%+
10%
80%+
7%
90%+
5%
$39,846 Vol.
60%+
$23,172 Vol.
74%
65%+
$6,524 Vol.
26%
70%+
$4,697 Vol.
15%
75%+
$2,096 Vol.
10%
80%+
$1,151 Vol.
7%
90%+
$2,206 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 currently top public HLE leaderboards at 64.7% and 64.5%, reflecting the lab’s edge in reasoning-focused training and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 sits close behind at ~62%, while OpenAI’s strongest GPT-5 variants trail in the mid-50s across Artificial Analysis and BenchLM snapshots. Scores have climbed sharply through 2026 as labs deploy chain-of-thought scaffolds, verification loops, and larger context windows, outpacing the benchmark’s original saturation timeline. Remaining catalysts include new frontier releases, multimodal or agentic extensions, and official Scale leaderboard updates through year-end that could shift the highest reported mark before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$39,846End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 currently top public HLE leaderboards at 64.7% and 64.5%, reflecting the lab’s edge in reasoning-focused training and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 sits close behind at ~62%, while OpenAI’s strongest GPT-5 variants trail in the mid-50s across Artificial Analysis and BenchLM snapshots. Scores have climbed sharply through 2026 as labs deploy chain-of-thought scaffolds, verification loops, and larger context windows, outpacing the benchmark’s original saturation timeline. Remaining catalysts include new frontier releases, multimodal or agentic extensions, and official Scale leaderboard updates through year-end that could shift the highest reported mark before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$39,846End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 currently top public HLE leaderboards at 64.7% and 64.5%, reflecting the lab’s edge in reasoning-focused training and tool-augmented evaluation on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 sits close behind at ~62%, while OpenAI’s strongest GPT-5 variants trail in the mid-50s across Artificial Analysis and BenchLM snapshots. Scores have climbed sharply through 2026 as labs deploy chain-of-thought scaffolds, verification loops, and larger context windows, outpacing the benchmark’s original saturation timeline. Remaining catalysts include new frontier releases, multimodal or agentic extensions, and official Scale leaderboard updates through year-end that could shift the highest reported mark before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
73%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
46%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
88%
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Frequently Asked Questions