**Grok models currently trail the HLE leaderboard at roughly 43% with Grok 4.6 and 4.5, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 leads at 64.7% and Claude Mythos 5 sits at 64.5%, followed by Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62.1%.** The expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark, developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, emphasizes graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with questions resistant to memorization or retrieval. Steady xAI releases have lifted Grok scores since 2025, yet the gap to frontier labs persists on verified closed-book evaluations. With only four months remaining in 2026, upcoming Grok iterations, potential reasoning enhancements, or architectural updates represent the main swing factors that could push scores toward 45–55% thresholds or leave them short. Trader consensus reflects the competitive lag and limited time for catch-up.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$53,743 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
73%
50%+
53%
55%+
26%
60%+
19%
65%+
5%
$53,743 Vol.
45%+
$22,017 Vol.
73%
50%+
$6,339 Vol.
53%
55%+
$11,706 Vol.
26%
60%+
$11,871 Vol.
19%
65%+
$1,811 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail the HLE leaderboard at roughly 43% with Grok 4.6 and 4.5, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 leads at 64.7% and Claude Mythos 5 sits at 64.5%, followed by Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62.1%.** The expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark, developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, emphasizes graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with questions resistant to memorization or retrieval. Steady xAI releases have lifted Grok scores since 2025, yet the gap to frontier labs persists on verified closed-book evaluations. With only four months remaining in 2026, upcoming Grok iterations, potential reasoning enhancements, or architectural updates represent the main swing factors that could push scores toward 45–55% thresholds or leave them short. Trader consensus reflects the competitive lag and limited time for catch-up.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$53,743End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail the HLE leaderboard at roughly 43% with Grok 4.6 and 4.5, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 leads at 64.7% and Claude Mythos 5 sits at 64.5%, followed by Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62.1%.** The expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark, developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, emphasizes graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with questions resistant to memorization or retrieval. Steady xAI releases have lifted Grok scores since 2025, yet the gap to frontier labs persists on verified closed-book evaluations. With only four months remaining in 2026, upcoming Grok iterations, potential reasoning enhancements, or architectural updates represent the main swing factors that could push scores toward 45–55% thresholds or leave them short. Trader consensus reflects the competitive lag and limited time for catch-up.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$53,743End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Grok models currently trail the HLE leaderboard at roughly 43% with Grok 4.6 and 4.5, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 leads at 64.7% and Claude Mythos 5 sits at 64.5%, followed by Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62.1%.** The expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark, developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, emphasizes graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with questions resistant to memorization or retrieval. Steady xAI releases have lifted Grok scores since 2025, yet the gap to frontier labs persists on verified closed-book evaluations. With only four months remaining in 2026, upcoming Grok iterations, potential reasoning enhancements, or architectural updates represent the main swing factors that could push scores toward 45–55% thresholds or leave them short. Trader consensus reflects the competitive lag and limited time for catch-up.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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