Yoon Suk-yeol remains in custody following his July 2025 re-arrest, with multiple convictions producing lengthy prison terms that traders view as likely to keep him detained through at least 2026. A February 2026 life sentence for leading an insurrection tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration is under appeal, while a June ruling imposed 30 years for a related drone operation over North Korea and a Supreme Court decision in July upheld a seven-year term for obstructing arrest efforts. Additional convictions, including two years for receiving manipulated polls, plus fresh indictments in August 2026 on abuse-of-power charges involving efforts to justify the martial law bid, have added to the docket. South Korea’s appellate timelines for such high-profile cases, combined with the cumulative sentences and ongoing special-counsel proceedings, underpin the 92 percent trader consensus against release before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedYoon out of custody before 2027?
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
8% chance
$201,202 Vol.
$201,202 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8% chance
$201,202 Vol.
$201,202 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yoon Suk-yeol remains in custody following his July 2025 re-arrest, with multiple convictions producing lengthy prison terms that traders view as likely to keep him detained through at least 2026. A February 2026 life sentence for leading an insurrection tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration is under appeal, while a June ruling imposed 30 years for a related drone operation over North Korea and a Supreme Court decision in July upheld a seven-year term for obstructing arrest efforts. Additional convictions, including two years for receiving manipulated polls, plus fresh indictments in August 2026 on abuse-of-power charges involving efforts to justify the martial law bid, have added to the docket. South Korea’s appellate timelines for such high-profile cases, combined with the cumulative sentences and ongoing special-counsel proceedings, underpin the 92 percent trader consensus against release before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$201,202End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yoon Suk-yeol remains in custody following his July 2025 re-arrest, with multiple convictions producing lengthy prison terms that traders view as likely to keep him detained through at least 2026. A February 2026 life sentence for leading an insurrection tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration is under appeal, while a June ruling imposed 30 years for a related drone operation over North Korea and a Supreme Court decision in July upheld a seven-year term for obstructing arrest efforts. Additional convictions, including two years for receiving manipulated polls, plus fresh indictments in August 2026 on abuse-of-power charges involving efforts to justify the martial law bid, have added to the docket. South Korea’s appellate timelines for such high-profile cases, combined with the cumulative sentences and ongoing special-counsel proceedings, underpin the 92 percent trader consensus against release before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$201,202End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Yoon Suk-yeol remains in custody following his July 2025 re-arrest, with multiple convictions producing lengthy prison terms that traders view as likely to keep him detained through at least 2026. A February 2026 life sentence for leading an insurrection tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration is under appeal, while a June ruling imposed 30 years for a related drone operation over North Korea and a Supreme Court decision in July upheld a seven-year term for obstructing arrest efforts. Additional convictions, including two years for receiving manipulated polls, plus fresh indictments in August 2026 on abuse-of-power charges involving efforts to justify the martial law bid, have added to the docket. South Korea’s appellate timelines for such high-profile cases, combined with the cumulative sentences and ongoing special-counsel proceedings, underpin the 92 percent trader consensus against release before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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