**US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the mid-August expiration of the June 17 memorandum of understanding, with no direct negotiations underway as of late August 2026.** The 60-day window for advancing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and related disputes produced no final agreement, amid mutual accusations of violations and resumed low-level strikes. The Trump administration has shifted emphasis to intensified economic pressure, including secondary sanctions targeting Iran's oil trade, while stating that meaningful negotiations have not resumed. Iran conditions any return to the table on an end to that pressure campaign and fulfillment of prior commitments. Qatari and Pakistani mediators continue backchannel work, highlighted by the Qatari prime minister's August 28 meetings in Tehran focused on Hormuz navigation, alongside parallel Iran-Oman discussions on maritime routes. These efforts, plus scheduled technical follow-ups on deconfliction and inspections, represent the main near-term catalysts that could enable a new round of talks before year-end. Persistent barriers include unresolved Hormuz access, nuclear verification demands, and Lebanon's linked ceasefire dynamics, leaving the path to high-level attendance dependent on de-escalation signals from both capitals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$322,571 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
36%
Abbas Araghchi
35%
Jared Kushner
34%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
33%
Ishaq Dar
32%
J.D. Vance
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Nick Stewart
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Rafael Grossi
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
15%
Marco Rubio
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
10%
Donald Trump
9%
Pete Hegseth
9%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$322,571 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$19,845 Vol.
36%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,982 Vol.
35%
Jared Kushner
$16,693 Vol.
34%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$13,230 Vol.
33%
Ishaq Dar
$17,607 Vol.
32%
J.D. Vance
$20,976 Vol.
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,498 Vol.
24%
Nick Stewart
$12,894 Vol.
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,966 Vol.
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$30,152 Vol.
17%
Rafael Grossi
$21,855 Vol.
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$32,297 Vol.
15%
Marco Rubio
$13,398 Vol.
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$19,299 Vol.
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
$7,946 Vol.
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
$41 Vol.
10%
Donald Trump
$8,653 Vol.
9%
Pete Hegseth
$15,438 Vol.
9%
Esmail Qaani
$10,910 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,890 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the mid-August expiration of the June 17 memorandum of understanding, with no direct negotiations underway as of late August 2026.** The 60-day window for advancing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and related disputes produced no final agreement, amid mutual accusations of violations and resumed low-level strikes. The Trump administration has shifted emphasis to intensified economic pressure, including secondary sanctions targeting Iran's oil trade, while stating that meaningful negotiations have not resumed. Iran conditions any return to the table on an end to that pressure campaign and fulfillment of prior commitments.
Qatari and Pakistani mediators continue backchannel work, highlighted by the Qatari prime minister's August 28 meetings in Tehran focused on Hormuz navigation, alongside parallel Iran-Oman discussions on maritime routes. These efforts, plus scheduled technical follow-ups on deconfliction and inspections, represent the main near-term catalysts that could enable a new round of talks before year-end. Persistent barriers include unresolved Hormuz access, nuclear verification demands, and Lebanon's linked ceasefire dynamics, leaving the path to high-level attendance dependent on de-escalation signals from both capitals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$322,571End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the mid-August expiration of the June 17 memorandum of understanding, with no direct negotiations underway as of late August 2026.** The 60-day window for advancing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and related disputes produced no final agreement, amid mutual accusations of violations and resumed low-level strikes. The Trump administration has shifted emphasis to intensified economic pressure, including secondary sanctions targeting Iran's oil trade, while stating that meaningful negotiations have not resumed. Iran conditions any return to the table on an end to that pressure campaign and fulfillment of prior commitments.
Qatari and Pakistani mediators continue backchannel work, highlighted by the Qatari prime minister's August 28 meetings in Tehran focused on Hormuz navigation, alongside parallel Iran-Oman discussions on maritime routes. These efforts, plus scheduled technical follow-ups on deconfliction and inspections, represent the main near-term catalysts that could enable a new round of talks before year-end. Persistent barriers include unresolved Hormuz access, nuclear verification demands, and Lebanon's linked ceasefire dynamics, leaving the path to high-level attendance dependent on de-escalation signals from both capitals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$322,571End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the mid-August expiration of the June 17 memorandum of understanding, with no direct negotiations underway as of late August 2026.** The 60-day window for advancing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and related disputes produced no final agreement, amid mutual accusations of violations and resumed low-level strikes. The Trump administration has shifted emphasis to intensified economic pressure, including secondary sanctions targeting Iran's oil trade, while stating that meaningful negotiations have not resumed. Iran conditions any return to the table on an end to that pressure campaign and fulfillment of prior commitments. Qatari and Pakistani mediators continue backchannel work, highlighted by the Qatari prime minister's August 28 meetings in Tehran focused on Hormuz navigation, alongside parallel Iran-Oman discussions on maritime routes. These efforts, plus scheduled technical follow-ups on deconfliction and inspections, represent the main near-term catalysts that could enable a new round of talks before year-end. Persistent barriers include unresolved Hormuz access, nuclear verification demands, and Lebanon's linked ceasefire dynamics, leaving the path to high-level attendance dependent on de-escalation signals from both capitals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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