Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 69% implied probability for the best Code Arena WebDev AI model by end of September, driven by Claude Opus 5-max topping the Arena.ai leaderboard with a 1691 Elo score as of mid-August 2026. The model excels in agentic, full-stack web development tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, database integration, and deployments, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and other frontier systems by meaningful margins on human-preference votes. Recent releases from Moonshot (Kimi K3), Alibaba (Qwen3.8), and DeepSeek have narrowed gaps among open-weight options and reshaped the Pareto frontier, yet Anthropic maintains the edge in verified coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro. With resolution just over a month away and no announced challengers, the current leaderboard positioning anchors the strong consensus while leaving room for late-cycle model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 70%
OpenAI 8.1%
Moonshot 5.3%
Alibaba 4.8%
$50,477 Vol.
$50,477 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
70%
OpenAI
8%
Moonshot
5%
Alibaba
5%
Meta
4%
Z.ai
3%
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 70%
OpenAI 8.1%
Moonshot 5.3%
Alibaba 4.8%
$50,477 Vol.
$50,477 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$23,168 Vol.
70%
OpenAI
$3,545 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$12,539 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$1,197 Vol.
5%
Meta
$1,109 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$1,369 Vol.
3%
$1,385 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$959 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$962 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$468 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$559 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$657 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$560 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$571 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 69% implied probability for the best Code Arena WebDev AI model by end of September, driven by Claude Opus 5-max topping the Arena.ai leaderboard with a 1691 Elo score as of mid-August 2026. The model excels in agentic, full-stack web development tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, database integration, and deployments, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and other frontier systems by meaningful margins on human-preference votes. Recent releases from Moonshot (Kimi K3), Alibaba (Qwen3.8), and DeepSeek have narrowed gaps among open-weight options and reshaped the Pareto frontier, yet Anthropic maintains the edge in verified coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro. With resolution just over a month away and no announced challengers, the current leaderboard positioning anchors the strong consensus while leaving room for late-cycle model updates.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$50,477End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 69% implied probability for the best Code Arena WebDev AI model by end of September, driven by Claude Opus 5-max topping the Arena.ai leaderboard with a 1691 Elo score as of mid-August 2026. The model excels in agentic, full-stack web development tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, database integration, and deployments, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and other frontier systems by meaningful margins on human-preference votes. Recent releases from Moonshot (Kimi K3), Alibaba (Qwen3.8), and DeepSeek have narrowed gaps among open-weight options and reshaped the Pareto frontier, yet Anthropic maintains the edge in verified coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro. With resolution just over a month away and no announced challengers, the current leaderboard positioning anchors the strong consensus while leaving room for late-cycle model updates.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$50,477End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdevResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 69% implied probability for the best Code Arena WebDev AI model by end of September, driven by Claude Opus 5-max topping the Arena.ai leaderboard with a 1691 Elo score as of mid-August 2026. The model excels in agentic, full-stack web development tasks involving multi-step reasoning, tool use, database integration, and deployments, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and other frontier systems by meaningful margins on human-preference votes. Recent releases from Moonshot (Kimi K3), Alibaba (Qwen3.8), and DeepSeek have narrowed gaps among open-weight options and reshaped the Pareto frontier, yet Anthropic maintains the edge in verified coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro. With resolution just over a month away and no announced challengers, the current leaderboard positioning anchors the strong consensus while leaving room for late-cycle model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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