Moonshot’s Kimi K3 release in July 2026 drove its 55.5% implied probability for second place on the arena.ai Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September, after the open-weight model posted strong agentic frontend scores that placed it within roughly 17 Elo points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus 5 variant. Current rankings show Anthropic at the top with Moonshot models clustered just behind on multi-step web development tasks, while most other labs trail on the specific criteria of long-context handling, low hallucination rates, and community-voted agentic workflows. The broad 50% pricing across numerous entrants and the 33% on Alibaba reflect ongoing uncertainty around September model updates that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 56%
Alibaba 33%
OpenAI 7.0%
Anthropic 5.2%
$27,655 Vol.
$27,655 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
56%
Alibaba
33%
OpenAI
7%
Anthropic
5%
SpaceXAI
2%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Mistral
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Moonshot 56%
Alibaba 33%
OpenAI 7.0%
Anthropic 5.2%
$27,655 Vol.
$27,655 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$6,754 Vol.
56%
Alibaba
$9,634 Vol.
33%
OpenAI
$1,723 Vol.
7%
Anthropic
$3,386 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$414 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$352 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$1,569 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$559 Vol.
1%
Meta
$431 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$740 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$318 Vol.
<1%
$359 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$354 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$323 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$329 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$410 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot’s Kimi K3 release in July 2026 drove its 55.5% implied probability for second place on the arena.ai Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September, after the open-weight model posted strong agentic frontend scores that placed it within roughly 17 Elo points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus 5 variant. Current rankings show Anthropic at the top with Moonshot models clustered just behind on multi-step web development tasks, while most other labs trail on the specific criteria of long-context handling, low hallucination rates, and community-voted agentic workflows. The broad 50% pricing across numerous entrants and the 33% on Alibaba reflect ongoing uncertainty around September model updates that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
Volume
$27,655End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot’s Kimi K3 release in July 2026 drove its 55.5% implied probability for second place on the arena.ai Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September, after the open-weight model posted strong agentic frontend scores that placed it within roughly 17 Elo points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus 5 variant. Current rankings show Anthropic at the top with Moonshot models clustered just behind on multi-step web development tasks, while most other labs trail on the specific criteria of long-context handling, low hallucination rates, and community-voted agentic workflows. The broad 50% pricing across numerous entrants and the 33% on Alibaba reflect ongoing uncertainty around September model updates that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$27,655End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot’s Kimi K3 release in July 2026 drove its 55.5% implied probability for second place on the arena.ai Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September, after the open-weight model posted strong agentic frontend scores that placed it within roughly 17 Elo points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus 5 variant. Current rankings show Anthropic at the top with Moonshot models clustered just behind on multi-step web development tasks, while most other labs trail on the specific criteria of long-context handling, low hallucination rates, and community-voted agentic workflows. The broad 50% pricing across numerous entrants and the 33% on Alibaba reflect ongoing uncertainty around September model updates that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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