Recent FOMC communications and economic data have kept trader expectations for the federal funds rate at end-2026 tightly clustered around 3.75–4.0 percent. Elevated inflation near 4 percent, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East supply disruptions, tariff effects, and AI-related demand pressures, has offset solid GDP growth and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent. The July meeting held rates at 3.5–3.75 percent despite three dissents favoring a hike, while June projections showed a 3.8 percent median for year-end 2026. Remaining 2026 meetings and incoming CPI, employment, and geopolitical developments will determine whether the path tilts toward one additional tightening or a steady stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.75% 33.3%
4.0% 30.8%
4.25% 16.4%
3.5% 7.6%
$6,778,504 Vol.
$6,778,504 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
33%
4.0%
31%
4.25%
16%
≥ 4.5%
4%
3.75% 33.3%
4.0% 30.8%
4.25% 16.4%
3.5% 7.6%
$6,778,504 Vol.
$6,778,504 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$249,752 Vol.
1%
1.25
$143,859 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$146,989 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$149,408 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$264,637 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$88,603 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$173,617 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$61,685 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$489,293 Vol.
<1%
3.25%
$66,813 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$203,161 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$532,588 Vol.
33%
4.0%
$1,370,077 Vol.
31%
4.25%
$429,472 Vol.
16%
≥ 4.5%
$2,408,548 Vol.
4%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC communications and economic data have kept trader expectations for the federal funds rate at end-2026 tightly clustered around 3.75–4.0 percent. Elevated inflation near 4 percent, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East supply disruptions, tariff effects, and AI-related demand pressures, has offset solid GDP growth and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent. The July meeting held rates at 3.5–3.75 percent despite three dissents favoring a hike, while June projections showed a 3.8 percent median for year-end 2026. Remaining 2026 meetings and incoming CPI, employment, and geopolitical developments will determine whether the path tilts toward one additional tightening or a steady stance.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,778,504End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC communications and economic data have kept trader expectations for the federal funds rate at end-2026 tightly clustered around 3.75–4.0 percent. Elevated inflation near 4 percent, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East supply disruptions, tariff effects, and AI-related demand pressures, has offset solid GDP growth and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent. The July meeting held rates at 3.5–3.75 percent despite three dissents favoring a hike, while June projections showed a 3.8 percent median for year-end 2026. Remaining 2026 meetings and incoming CPI, employment, and geopolitical developments will determine whether the path tilts toward one additional tightening or a steady stance.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,778,504End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC communications and economic data have kept trader expectations for the federal funds rate at end-2026 tightly clustered around 3.75–4.0 percent. Elevated inflation near 4 percent, driven by energy price spikes tied to Middle East supply disruptions, tariff effects, and AI-related demand pressures, has offset solid GDP growth and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent. The July meeting held rates at 3.5–3.75 percent despite three dissents favoring a hike, while June projections showed a 3.8 percent median for year-end 2026. Remaining 2026 meetings and incoming CPI, employment, and geopolitical developments will determine whether the path tilts toward one additional tightening or a steady stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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