Recent FOMC projections and incoming data have kept trader expectations clustered around 3.75–4.0% for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with those two outcomes holding the clearest lead in the market. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections raised the median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 3.8%, reflecting upward revisions to core PCE inflation amid supply pressures and a Middle East conflict, while the unemployment rate has eased to 4.1% and payroll growth remains modest. Analysts cite a hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh, the absence of rate cuts so far this year, and election timing as reasons the Fed is likely to stay on hold or deliver at most one 25 bp hike. Incoming inflation prints, labor-market readings, and any further geopolitical shocks could widen the gap between the two leading outcomes by shifting the balance between persistent price pressures and gradual cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.75% 33.3%
4.0% 30.8%
4.25% 13.1%
3.5% 7.5%
$6,778,722 Vol.
$6,778,722 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
33%
4.0%
31%
4.25%
13%
≥ 4.5%
4%
3.75% 33.3%
4.0% 30.8%
4.25% 13.1%
3.5% 7.5%
$6,778,722 Vol.
$6,778,722 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$249,950 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$143,869 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$146,989 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$149,408 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$264,648 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$88,603 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$173,617 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$61,685 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$489,293 Vol.
<1%
3.25%
$66,813 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$203,161 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$532,588 Vol.
33%
4.0%
$1,370,077 Vol.
31%
4.25%
$429,472 Vol.
13%
≥ 4.5%
$2,408,548 Vol.
4%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and incoming data have kept trader expectations clustered around 3.75–4.0% for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with those two outcomes holding the clearest lead in the market. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections raised the median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 3.8%, reflecting upward revisions to core PCE inflation amid supply pressures and a Middle East conflict, while the unemployment rate has eased to 4.1% and payroll growth remains modest. Analysts cite a hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh, the absence of rate cuts so far this year, and election timing as reasons the Fed is likely to stay on hold or deliver at most one 25 bp hike. Incoming inflation prints, labor-market readings, and any further geopolitical shocks could widen the gap between the two leading outcomes by shifting the balance between persistent price pressures and gradual cooling.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,778,722End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and incoming data have kept trader expectations clustered around 3.75–4.0% for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with those two outcomes holding the clearest lead in the market. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections raised the median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 3.8%, reflecting upward revisions to core PCE inflation amid supply pressures and a Middle East conflict, while the unemployment rate has eased to 4.1% and payroll growth remains modest. Analysts cite a hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh, the absence of rate cuts so far this year, and election timing as reasons the Fed is likely to stay on hold or deliver at most one 25 bp hike. Incoming inflation prints, labor-market readings, and any further geopolitical shocks could widen the gap between the two leading outcomes by shifting the balance between persistent price pressures and gradual cooling.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,778,722End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections and incoming data have kept trader expectations clustered around 3.75–4.0% for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with those two outcomes holding the clearest lead in the market. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections raised the median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 3.8%, reflecting upward revisions to core PCE inflation amid supply pressures and a Middle East conflict, while the unemployment rate has eased to 4.1% and payroll growth remains modest. Analysts cite a hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh, the absence of rate cuts so far this year, and election timing as reasons the Fed is likely to stay on hold or deliver at most one 25 bp hike. Incoming inflation prints, labor-market readings, and any further geopolitical shocks could widen the gap between the two leading outcomes by shifting the balance between persistent price pressures and gradual cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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