Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11 with roughly 59 percent of the vote, producing a margin near 20 points over Rep. Angie Craig. The outcome reflected Flanagan’s strong progressive positioning, party endorsement, and endorsements from Sen. Tina Smith along with national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Craig’s earlier support for an immigration measure tied to the Trump administration proved costly amid winter backlash in the state, eroding her standing among primary voters despite superior fundraising. With the primary completed and results consistent across reporting, trader consensus has aligned on the realized 15–20 point range. Late certification adjustments or disputes remain the only narrow paths to altering the settled margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlanagan 15–20% 100.0%
Flanagan 20%+ <1%
Flanagan 10–15% <1%
Flanagan 5–10% <1%
$52,182 Vol.
$52,182 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Flanagan 20%+
No
Flanagan 15–20%
Yes
Flanagan 10–15%
No
Flanagan 5–10%
No
Flanagan <5%
No
Craig <5%
No
Craig 5–10%
No
Craig 10–15%
No
Craig 15–20%
No
Craig 20%+
No
Flanagan 15–20% 100.0%
Flanagan 20%+ <1%
Flanagan 10–15% <1%
Flanagan 5–10% <1%
$52,182 Vol.
$52,182 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Flanagan 20%+
$1,854 Vol.
No
Flanagan 15–20%
$19,808 Vol.
Yes
Flanagan 10–15%
$10,047 Vol.
No
Flanagan 5–10%
$5,098 Vol.
No
Flanagan <5%
$9,568 Vol.
No
Craig <5%
$1,394 Vol.
No
Craig 5–10%
$2,777 Vol.
No
Craig 10–15%
$663 Vol.
No
Craig 15–20%
$489 Vol.
No
Craig 20%+
$483 Vol.
No
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11 with roughly 59 percent of the vote, producing a margin near 20 points over Rep. Angie Craig. The outcome reflected Flanagan’s strong progressive positioning, party endorsement, and endorsements from Sen. Tina Smith along with national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Craig’s earlier support for an immigration measure tied to the Trump administration proved costly amid winter backlash in the state, eroding her standing among primary voters despite superior fundraising. With the primary completed and results consistent across reporting, trader consensus has aligned on the realized 15–20 point range. Late certification adjustments or disputes remain the only narrow paths to altering the settled margin.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$52,182End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11 with roughly 59 percent of the vote, producing a margin near 20 points over Rep. Angie Craig. The outcome reflected Flanagan’s strong progressive positioning, party endorsement, and endorsements from Sen. Tina Smith along with national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Craig’s earlier support for an immigration measure tied to the Trump administration proved costly amid winter backlash in the state, eroding her standing among primary voters despite superior fundraising. With the primary completed and results consistent across reporting, trader consensus has aligned on the realized 15–20 point range. Late certification adjustments or disputes remain the only narrow paths to altering the settled margin.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$52,182End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11 with roughly 59 percent of the vote, producing a margin near 20 points over Rep. Angie Craig. The outcome reflected Flanagan’s strong progressive positioning, party endorsement, and endorsements from Sen. Tina Smith along with national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Craig’s earlier support for an immigration measure tied to the Trump administration proved costly amid winter backlash in the state, eroding her standing among primary voters despite superior fundraising. With the primary completed and results consistent across reporting, trader consensus has aligned on the realized 15–20 point range. Late certification adjustments or disputes remain the only narrow paths to altering the settled margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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