Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 59°F on August 25, 2026, aligning precisely with the dominant 58-59°F market bin. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow maintained typical late-summer nocturnal cooling without the stronger radiational or offshore-wind conditions that historically produce sub-55°F readings. Model guidance and local climatology had already converged on lows in the upper 50s, and post-event verification eliminated remaining uncertainty, driving near-certain trader consensus. Only minor station-to-station variance or measurement timing differences could theoretically shift resolution, but authoritative data sources render such scenarios improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
58-59°F 100.0%
49°F or below 1.0%
54-55°F 1.0%
50-51°F <1%
$2,409 Vol.
$2,409 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
Yes
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68°F or higher
No
58-59°F 100.0%
49°F or below 1.0%
54-55°F 1.0%
50-51°F <1%
$2,409 Vol.
$2,409 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
$10 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$235 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$302 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$52 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$37 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$160 Vol.
Yes
60-61°F
$100 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$355 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$410 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$210 Vol.
No
68°F or higher
$538 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 59°F on August 25, 2026, aligning precisely with the dominant 58-59°F market bin. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow maintained typical late-summer nocturnal cooling without the stronger radiational or offshore-wind conditions that historically produce sub-55°F readings. Model guidance and local climatology had already converged on lows in the upper 50s, and post-event verification eliminated remaining uncertainty, driving near-certain trader consensus. Only minor station-to-station variance or measurement timing differences could theoretically shift resolution, but authoritative data sources render such scenarios improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,409End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 59°F on August 25, 2026, aligning precisely with the dominant 58-59°F market bin. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow maintained typical late-summer nocturnal cooling without the stronger radiational or offshore-wind conditions that historically produce sub-55°F readings. Model guidance and local climatology had already converged on lows in the upper 50s, and post-event verification eliminated remaining uncertainty, driving near-certain trader consensus. Only minor station-to-station variance or measurement timing differences could theoretically shift resolution, but authoritative data sources render such scenarios improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,409End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 59°F on August 25, 2026, aligning precisely with the dominant 58-59°F market bin. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow maintained typical late-summer nocturnal cooling without the stronger radiational or offshore-wind conditions that historically produce sub-55°F readings. Model guidance and local climatology had already converged on lows in the upper 50s, and post-event verification eliminated remaining uncertainty, driving near-certain trader consensus. Only minor station-to-station variance or measurement timing differences could theoretically shift resolution, but authoritative data sources render such scenarios improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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