**Trader consensus heavily favors a 27°C minimum in Manila on August 26, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This reflects consistent forecast guidance from regional models showing overnight lows stabilizing near 26–28°C under typical southwest monsoon conditions, with high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms moderating radiative cooling. Official observations and historical August climatology for the Manila area place average daily minima around 25–26°C, with 27°C falling squarely within the expected range absent major atmospheric shifts. Key supporting factors include stable sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and absence of significant cold-air intrusions or prolonged clear skies that could drive sharper drops. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include an unforecasted surge in convective activity or measurement variance at the primary reporting station, though current model agreement and real-time data make substantial deviation improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 26?
27°C 100.0%
23°C 1.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
$2,839 Vol.
$2,839 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C 1.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
$2,839 Vol.
$2,839 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
$430 Vol.
No
22°C
$165 Vol.
No
23°C
$5 Vol.
No
24°C
$135 Vol.
No
25°C
$603 Vol.
No
26°C
$35 Vol.
No
27°C
$824 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$313 Vol.
No
29°C
$269 Vol.
No
30°C
$30 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$30 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 27°C minimum in Manila on August 26, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This reflects consistent forecast guidance from regional models showing overnight lows stabilizing near 26–28°C under typical southwest monsoon conditions, with high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms moderating radiative cooling. Official observations and historical August climatology for the Manila area place average daily minima around 25–26°C, with 27°C falling squarely within the expected range absent major atmospheric shifts. Key supporting factors include stable sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and absence of significant cold-air intrusions or prolonged clear skies that could drive sharper drops. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include an unforecasted surge in convective activity or measurement variance at the primary reporting station, though current model agreement and real-time data make substantial deviation improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$2,839End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 27°C minimum in Manila on August 26, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This reflects consistent forecast guidance from regional models showing overnight lows stabilizing near 26–28°C under typical southwest monsoon conditions, with high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms moderating radiative cooling. Official observations and historical August climatology for the Manila area place average daily minima around 25–26°C, with 27°C falling squarely within the expected range absent major atmospheric shifts. Key supporting factors include stable sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and absence of significant cold-air intrusions or prolonged clear skies that could drive sharper drops. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include an unforecasted surge in convective activity or measurement variance at the primary reporting station, though current model agreement and real-time data make substantial deviation improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,839End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus heavily favors a 27°C minimum in Manila on August 26, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This reflects consistent forecast guidance from regional models showing overnight lows stabilizing near 26–28°C under typical southwest monsoon conditions, with high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms moderating radiative cooling. Official observations and historical August climatology for the Manila area place average daily minima around 25–26°C, with 27°C falling squarely within the expected range absent major atmospheric shifts. Key supporting factors include stable sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and absence of significant cold-air intrusions or prolonged clear skies that could drive sharper drops. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include an unforecasted surge in convective activity or measurement variance at the primary reporting station, though current model agreement and real-time data make substantial deviation improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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