**Trader consensus heavily favors a 12°C minimum in Cape Town on August 25, reflecting consistent forecasts from regional models and the South African Weather Service showing overnight lows stabilizing near 12–13°C under clear skies and moderate southwesterly flow.** Recent observations from Cape Town International Airport confirm overnight temperatures bottoming at or slightly above this level on prior days, with no incoming cold fronts or significant radiative cooling expected to push readings lower. Stable high-pressure conditions and seasonal climatology (typical August minima around 10–12°C) reinforce this positioning, while the narrow probability bands on outliers underscore limited forecast divergence. A shift in steering winds or unexpected marine-layer development could still produce a 1–2°C deviation before final official readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 25?
12°C 99.5%
10°C 1.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
$3,872 Vol.
$3,872 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
12°C 99.5%
10°C 1.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
$3,872 Vol.
$3,872 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
7°C or below
$392 Vol.
No
8°C
$108 Vol.
No
9°C
$140 Vol.
No
10°C
$74 Vol.
No
11°C
$108 Vol.
No
12°C
$146 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$444 Vol.
No
14°C
$132 Vol.
No
15°C
$588 Vol.
No
16°C
$938 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$803 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 12°C minimum in Cape Town on August 25, reflecting consistent forecasts from regional models and the South African Weather Service showing overnight lows stabilizing near 12–13°C under clear skies and moderate southwesterly flow.** Recent observations from Cape Town International Airport confirm overnight temperatures bottoming at or slightly above this level on prior days, with no incoming cold fronts or significant radiative cooling expected to push readings lower. Stable high-pressure conditions and seasonal climatology (typical August minima around 10–12°C) reinforce this positioning, while the narrow probability bands on outliers underscore limited forecast divergence. A shift in steering winds or unexpected marine-layer development could still produce a 1–2°C deviation before final official readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$3,872End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 12°C minimum in Cape Town on August 25, reflecting consistent forecasts from regional models and the South African Weather Service showing overnight lows stabilizing near 12–13°C under clear skies and moderate southwesterly flow.** Recent observations from Cape Town International Airport confirm overnight temperatures bottoming at or slightly above this level on prior days, with no incoming cold fronts or significant radiative cooling expected to push readings lower. Stable high-pressure conditions and seasonal climatology (typical August minima around 10–12°C) reinforce this positioning, while the narrow probability bands on outliers underscore limited forecast divergence. A shift in steering winds or unexpected marine-layer development could still produce a 1–2°C deviation before final official readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,872End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Trader consensus heavily favors a 12°C minimum in Cape Town on August 25, reflecting consistent forecasts from regional models and the South African Weather Service showing overnight lows stabilizing near 12–13°C under clear skies and moderate southwesterly flow.** Recent observations from Cape Town International Airport confirm overnight temperatures bottoming at or slightly above this level on prior days, with no incoming cold fronts or significant radiative cooling expected to push readings lower. Stable high-pressure conditions and seasonal climatology (typical August minima around 10–12°C) reinforce this positioning, while the narrow probability bands on outliers underscore limited forecast divergence. A shift in steering winds or unexpected marine-layer development could still produce a 1–2°C deviation before final official readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions