OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.6 Sol model currently trails the HLE leaderboard at roughly 49.5% on Artificial Analysis evaluations and around 58% for earlier GPT-5.4 Pro variants, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 at 64.7% and 64.5%. Rapid 2026 gains have come from expanded reasoning chains, test-time compute scaling, and multimodal refinements that lifted OpenAI from early-year baselines near 20% to the upper 40s–50s, yet competitors have maintained the edge through superior post-training and architectural advances on this expert-level benchmark of graduate knowledge and multi-step reasoning. Additional GPT-5.x releases or early GPT-6 previews before year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could close the gap, though sustained leadership by Anthropic and Meta on no-tools leaderboards continues to shape trader expectations for OpenAI’s highest 2026 score.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$49,916 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
85%
55%+
46%
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28%
65%+
9%
70%+
6%
$49,916 Vol.
50%+
$8,984 Vol.
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$19,317 Vol.
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$16,625 Vol.
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$2,918 Vol.
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$2,072 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.6 Sol model currently trails the HLE leaderboard at roughly 49.5% on Artificial Analysis evaluations and around 58% for earlier GPT-5.4 Pro variants, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 at 64.7% and 64.5%. Rapid 2026 gains have come from expanded reasoning chains, test-time compute scaling, and multimodal refinements that lifted OpenAI from early-year baselines near 20% to the upper 40s–50s, yet competitors have maintained the edge through superior post-training and architectural advances on this expert-level benchmark of graduate knowledge and multi-step reasoning. Additional GPT-5.x releases or early GPT-6 previews before year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could close the gap, though sustained leadership by Anthropic and Meta on no-tools leaderboards continues to shape trader expectations for OpenAI’s highest 2026 score.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$49,916End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.6 Sol model currently trails the HLE leaderboard at roughly 49.5% on Artificial Analysis evaluations and around 58% for earlier GPT-5.4 Pro variants, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 at 64.7% and 64.5%. Rapid 2026 gains have come from expanded reasoning chains, test-time compute scaling, and multimodal refinements that lifted OpenAI from early-year baselines near 20% to the upper 40s–50s, yet competitors have maintained the edge through superior post-training and architectural advances on this expert-level benchmark of graduate knowledge and multi-step reasoning. Additional GPT-5.x releases or early GPT-6 previews before year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could close the gap, though sustained leadership by Anthropic and Meta on no-tools leaderboards continues to shape trader expectations for OpenAI’s highest 2026 score.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$49,916End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.6 Sol model currently trails the HLE leaderboard at roughly 49.5% on Artificial Analysis evaluations and around 58% for earlier GPT-5.4 Pro variants, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 at 64.7% and 64.5%. Rapid 2026 gains have come from expanded reasoning chains, test-time compute scaling, and multimodal refinements that lifted OpenAI from early-year baselines near 20% to the upper 40s–50s, yet competitors have maintained the edge through superior post-training and architectural advances on this expert-level benchmark of graduate knowledge and multi-step reasoning. Additional GPT-5.x releases or early GPT-6 previews before year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could close the gap, though sustained leadership by Anthropic and Meta on no-tools leaderboards continues to shape trader expectations for OpenAI’s highest 2026 score.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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