OpenAI trails the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) frontier as of late August 2026, with its strongest GPT-5.6 Sol variant at roughly 49.5% on Artificial Analysis and similar mid-40s to low-50s results on BenchLM leaderboards, behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 (54.9–64.7%). Trader sentiment centers on whether iterative GPT-5 releases, stronger chain-of-thought scaffolding, and agentic tool use can close this gap before year-end. Recent model drops and reasoning-focused configurations have lifted OpenAI scores several points, yet Anthropic and Meta continue posting higher marks on the expert-level, multi-domain benchmark designed to resist saturation. Key catalysts include any new OpenAI model announcements, major capability jumps in the remaining months, and confirmation of evaluation conditions such as tools or adaptive reasoning that markets use for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$51,771 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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$51,771 Vol.
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$9,111 Vol.
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$19,683 Vol.
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$17,520 Vol.
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$2,540 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI trails the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) frontier as of late August 2026, with its strongest GPT-5.6 Sol variant at roughly 49.5% on Artificial Analysis and similar mid-40s to low-50s results on BenchLM leaderboards, behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 (54.9–64.7%). Trader sentiment centers on whether iterative GPT-5 releases, stronger chain-of-thought scaffolding, and agentic tool use can close this gap before year-end. Recent model drops and reasoning-focused configurations have lifted OpenAI scores several points, yet Anthropic and Meta continue posting higher marks on the expert-level, multi-domain benchmark designed to resist saturation. Key catalysts include any new OpenAI model announcements, major capability jumps in the remaining months, and confirmation of evaluation conditions such as tools or adaptive reasoning that markets use for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$51,771End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI trails the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) frontier as of late August 2026, with its strongest GPT-5.6 Sol variant at roughly 49.5% on Artificial Analysis and similar mid-40s to low-50s results on BenchLM leaderboards, behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 (54.9–64.7%). Trader sentiment centers on whether iterative GPT-5 releases, stronger chain-of-thought scaffolding, and agentic tool use can close this gap before year-end. Recent model drops and reasoning-focused configurations have lifted OpenAI scores several points, yet Anthropic and Meta continue posting higher marks on the expert-level, multi-domain benchmark designed to resist saturation. Key catalysts include any new OpenAI model announcements, major capability jumps in the remaining months, and confirmation of evaluation conditions such as tools or adaptive reasoning that markets use for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$51,771End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI trails the Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) frontier as of late August 2026, with its strongest GPT-5.6 Sol variant at roughly 49.5% on Artificial Analysis and similar mid-40s to low-50s results on BenchLM leaderboards, behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 (54.9–64.7%). Trader sentiment centers on whether iterative GPT-5 releases, stronger chain-of-thought scaffolding, and agentic tool use can close this gap before year-end. Recent model drops and reasoning-focused configurations have lifted OpenAI scores several points, yet Anthropic and Meta continue posting higher marks on the expert-level, multi-domain benchmark designed to resist saturation. Key catalysts include any new OpenAI model announcements, major capability jumps in the remaining months, and confirmation of evaluation conditions such as tools or adaptive reasoning that markets use for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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