**Google DeepMind’s Gemini series has shown steady gains on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, but trails current leaders.** As of late August 2026, Gemini 3.1 Pro sits near 47% on verified leaderboards while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 leads at 64.7%, reflecting faster recent progress from reasoning-focused training at competing labs. Trader consensus on the 50%+ outcome (67% implied probability) factors in Google’s release cadence, potential scaling improvements, and the benchmark’s remaining headroom before saturation. Key catalysts through year-end include new Gemini versions, any architecture or post-training advances, and whether Google can close the gap on frontier reasoning benchmarks before December 31 resolution. Scores above 55% would require continued acceleration beyond current trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$47,300 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
72%
55%+
42%
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26%
65%+
14%
70%+
6%
$47,300 Vol.
50%+
$20,691 Vol.
72%
55%+
$7,723 Vol.
42%
60%+
$9,550 Vol.
26%
65%+
$4,988 Vol.
14%
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$4,348 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Google DeepMind’s Gemini series has shown steady gains on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, but trails current leaders.** As of late August 2026, Gemini 3.1 Pro sits near 47% on verified leaderboards while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 leads at 64.7%, reflecting faster recent progress from reasoning-focused training at competing labs. Trader consensus on the 50%+ outcome (67% implied probability) factors in Google’s release cadence, potential scaling improvements, and the benchmark’s remaining headroom before saturation. Key catalysts through year-end include new Gemini versions, any architecture or post-training advances, and whether Google can close the gap on frontier reasoning benchmarks before December 31 resolution. Scores above 55% would require continued acceleration beyond current trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$47,300End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Google DeepMind’s Gemini series has shown steady gains on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, but trails current leaders.** As of late August 2026, Gemini 3.1 Pro sits near 47% on verified leaderboards while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 leads at 64.7%, reflecting faster recent progress from reasoning-focused training at competing labs. Trader consensus on the 50%+ outcome (67% implied probability) factors in Google’s release cadence, potential scaling improvements, and the benchmark’s remaining headroom before saturation. Key catalysts through year-end include new Gemini versions, any architecture or post-training advances, and whether Google can close the gap on frontier reasoning benchmarks before December 31 resolution. Scores above 55% would require continued acceleration beyond current trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$47,300End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Google DeepMind’s Gemini series has shown steady gains on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, but trails current leaders.** As of late August 2026, Gemini 3.1 Pro sits near 47% on verified leaderboards while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 leads at 64.7%, reflecting faster recent progress from reasoning-focused training at competing labs. Trader consensus on the 50%+ outcome (67% implied probability) factors in Google’s release cadence, potential scaling improvements, and the benchmark’s remaining headroom before saturation. Key catalysts through year-end include new Gemini versions, any architecture or post-training advances, and whether Google can close the gap on frontier reasoning benchmarks before December 31 resolution. Scores above 55% would require continued acceleration beyond current trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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