Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...? — Discussion

PoorWithCryptos · 2025-12-16T19:36:41.877Z

Discussion about Fed rate cut by...?. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

$3,279,102 Vol.

Oct 7, 2026

September Meeting

$370,598 Vol.

October Meeting

$119,752 Vol.

December Meeting

$293,550 Vol.

11%

$3,279,102 Vol.

September Meeting

$370,598 Vol.

October Meeting

$119,752 Vol.

December Meeting

$293,550 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with July core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year and headline at 3.7%, combined with a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, remains the dominant factor anchoring the federal funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range. Supply shocks from energy prices and geopolitical tensions have kept price pressures elevated, prompting Chair Warsh and most FOMC participants to signal a high bar for easing and preference for holding policy steady through year-end. Fed funds futures currently reflect limited odds of near-term cuts, with greater weight on potential hikes or prolonged pause. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, fresh CPI and employment reports, and any shifts in inflation or unemployment trajectories that could alter the rate path.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Aug 29, 2026, 9:16 AM UTC

Jul 29 2026

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at July 2026 meeting amid economic stability

December Meeting dips to 11%3%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, reflecting a stable economic outlook and ongoing inflation concerns. This continued the trend of no rate cuts during the analysis period, reinforcing market expectations for a hold.

May 12 2026

April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026

December Meeting dips to 11%4%

April's Consumer Price Index showed the highest inflation in three years, with broad-based increases including core CPI, leading the Fed to signal no rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market expectations for cuts sharply lower.

May 11 2026

BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data

December Meeting plunges to 11%16%

In May 2026, major brokerages revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market, pushing anticipated rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027. This dampened market expectations for cuts in the analyzed window.

Mar 18 2026

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 2026 meeting amid inflation and geopolitical concerns

December Meeting drops to 77%10%

At the March 17-18 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Middle East conflict, as reasons to pause further easing. This reinforced market expectations for a hold and reduced the likelihood of cuts in the near term.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Aug 29, 2026, 9:16 AM UTC

Jul 29 2026

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at July 2026 meeting amid economic stability

December Meeting dips to 11%3%

May 12 2026

April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026

December Meeting dips to 11%4%

May 11 2026

BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data

December Meeting plunges to 11%16%

Mar 18 2026

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 2026 meeting amid inflation and geopolitical concerns

December Meeting drops to 77%10%

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

60%

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

32%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed rate cut by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December Meeting" at 11%, followed by "October Meeting" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fed rate cut by...?" has generated $3.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fed rate cut by...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Fed rate cut by...?" is "December Meeting" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October Meeting" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Fed rate cut by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed rate cut by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $3.3 million traded on “Fed rate cut by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Fed rate cut by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 11¢ for "December Meeting" in the "Fed rate cut by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 11% chance that "December Meeting" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 11¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 89¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Fed rate cut by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jan 7, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Fed rate cut by...?" market has an active community of 29 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Fed rate cut by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

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Comments (29)

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