Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, amplified by Middle East supply shocks that lifted energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75% after the July decision and core PCE near 3.3%, market-implied odds favor no change at 60.5% as the baseline, while a 25 basis point hike commands 21.5% amid nine officials’ dot-plot support for tighter policy this year. Solid GDP growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and resilient payrolls have reduced urgency for easing, though incoming CPI, employment data, and any de-escalation in energy markets remain key swing factors through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 61%
25 bps increase 22%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$56,277 Vol.
$56,277 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
22%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 22%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$56,277 Vol.
$56,277 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$12,838 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$11,396 Vol.
15%
No change
$17,692 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$12,062 Vol.
22%
50+ bps increase
$2,289 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, amplified by Middle East supply shocks that lifted energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75% after the July decision and core PCE near 3.3%, market-implied odds favor no change at 60.5% as the baseline, while a 25 basis point hike commands 21.5% amid nine officials’ dot-plot support for tighter policy this year. Solid GDP growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and resilient payrolls have reduced urgency for easing, though incoming CPI, employment data, and any de-escalation in energy markets remain key swing factors through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$56,277End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, amplified by Middle East supply shocks that lifted energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75% after the July decision and core PCE near 3.3%, market-implied odds favor no change at 60.5% as the baseline, while a 25 basis point hike commands 21.5% amid nine officials’ dot-plot support for tighter policy this year. Solid GDP growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and resilient payrolls have reduced urgency for easing, though incoming CPI, employment data, and any de-escalation in energy markets remain key swing factors through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$56,277End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, amplified by Middle East supply shocks that lifted energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75% after the July decision and core PCE near 3.3%, market-implied odds favor no change at 60.5% as the baseline, while a 25 basis point hike commands 21.5% amid nine officials’ dot-plot support for tighter policy this year. Solid GDP growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and resilient payrolls have reduced urgency for easing, though incoming CPI, employment data, and any de-escalation in energy markets remain key swing factors through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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