North Korea’s recent pattern of short-range ballistic missile launches, including a barrage of roughly 10 missiles on August 20, reflects routine responses to scaled-back U.S.-South Korea drills rather than preparations for a full-scale invasion. South Korean intelligence reports ongoing North Korean weapons shipments and troop support for Russia but detects no signs of imminent large-scale mobilization or border deployments aimed at Seoul. Diplomatic signals from the Trump administration seeking renewed engagement with Kim Jong-un, combined with Pyongyang’s focus on naval development and nuclear force modernization, reinforce trader assessments that an attack on South Korea remains improbable before 2027. Unforeseen events such as rapid escalation from border incidents, abrupt leadership shifts, or major U.S. policy reversals could still alter the outlook within the narrow remaining window.