US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, which set a 60-day window for nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation issues. The deadline passed in mid-August without agreement amid mutual violations, resumed strikes, and disputes over Lebanon ceasefire commitments. As of late August, the White House has stated that no direct negotiations are underway, with the administration emphasizing economic sanctions and pressure instead of talks, while mediators from Qatar and Oman pursue separate Hormuz-related channels. Key prior participants included US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; any resumption by year-end would likely require renewed mediation and resolution of core sticking points such as Iran's nuclear program and regional de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$320,605 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
36%
Abbas Araghchi
36%
Jared Kushner
33%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
32%
Ishaq Dar
32%
J.D. Vance
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
25%
Nick Stewart
19%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Rafael Grossi
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
16%
Marco Rubio
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Donald Trump
11%
Ahmad Vahidi
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
10%
Pete Hegseth
9%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$320,605 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$19,353 Vol.
36%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,630 Vol.
36%
Jared Kushner
$16,422 Vol.
33%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$13,181 Vol.
32%
Ishaq Dar
$17,587 Vol.
32%
J.D. Vance
$20,976 Vol.
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,498 Vol.
25%
Nick Stewart
$12,894 Vol.
19%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,966 Vol.
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$30,152 Vol.
17%
Rafael Grossi
$21,855 Vol.
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$31,702 Vol.
16%
Marco Rubio
$13,398 Vol.
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$19,299 Vol.
13%
Donald Trump
$8,492 Vol.
11%
Ahmad Vahidi
$7,946 Vol.
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
$41 Vol.
10%
Pete Hegseth
$15,413 Vol.
9%
Esmail Qaani
$10,910 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,890 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, which set a 60-day window for nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation issues. The deadline passed in mid-August without agreement amid mutual violations, resumed strikes, and disputes over Lebanon ceasefire commitments. As of late August, the White House has stated that no direct negotiations are underway, with the administration emphasizing economic sanctions and pressure instead of talks, while mediators from Qatar and Oman pursue separate Hormuz-related channels. Key prior participants included US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; any resumption by year-end would likely require renewed mediation and resolution of core sticking points such as Iran's nuclear program and regional de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$320,605End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, which set a 60-day window for nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation issues. The deadline passed in mid-August without agreement amid mutual violations, resumed strikes, and disputes over Lebanon ceasefire commitments. As of late August, the White House has stated that no direct negotiations are underway, with the administration emphasizing economic sanctions and pressure instead of talks, while mediators from Qatar and Oman pursue separate Hormuz-related channels. Key prior participants included US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; any resumption by year-end would likely require renewed mediation and resolution of core sticking points such as Iran's nuclear program and regional de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$320,605End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, which set a 60-day window for nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz navigation issues. The deadline passed in mid-August without agreement amid mutual violations, resumed strikes, and disputes over Lebanon ceasefire commitments. As of late August, the White House has stated that no direct negotiations are underway, with the administration emphasizing economic sanctions and pressure instead of talks, while mediators from Qatar and Oman pursue separate Hormuz-related channels. Key prior participants included US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; any resumption by year-end would likely require renewed mediation and resolution of core sticking points such as Iran's nuclear program and regional de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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