Anthropic holds a commanding market-implied lead at 69.5% for the top LiveBench Coding model by end of October 2026, reflecting trader confidence in its Claude series after strong July releases of Opus 5 and Fable 5 that posted leading scores on contamination-resistant coding evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified near 96% and competitive LiveBench category results. OpenAI trails at 26.5% following GPT-5.6 Sol and related variants that excel on some terminal and agentic tasks but lag on repository-scale coding benchmarks. Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen and Z.ai models top certain LiveCodeBench snapshots yet receive minimal odds, suggesting traders view LiveBench Coding as favoring the sustained frontier progress and benchmark consistency from Anthropic over open-weight or regional releases. With no major model drops in the past month and October resolution approaching, upcoming earnings or capability updates from the two leaders represent the main near-term swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 70%
OpenAI 27%
Z.ai 1.7%
Mistral 1.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
70%
OpenAI
27%
Z.ai
2%
Mistral
2%
2%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 70%
OpenAI 27%
Z.ai 1.7%
Mistral 1.6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,192 Vol.
70%
OpenAI
$600 Vol.
27%
Z.ai
$210 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$165 Vol.
2%
$138 Vol.
2%
Meta
$161 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$113 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$155 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$174 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$179 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$179 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$164 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$144 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$182 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$113 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$135 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$207 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$138 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$133 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$133 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$153 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a commanding market-implied lead at 69.5% for the top LiveBench Coding model by end of October 2026, reflecting trader confidence in its Claude series after strong July releases of Opus 5 and Fable 5 that posted leading scores on contamination-resistant coding evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified near 96% and competitive LiveBench category results. OpenAI trails at 26.5% following GPT-5.6 Sol and related variants that excel on some terminal and agentic tasks but lag on repository-scale coding benchmarks. Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen and Z.ai models top certain LiveCodeBench snapshots yet receive minimal odds, suggesting traders view LiveBench Coding as favoring the sustained frontier progress and benchmark consistency from Anthropic over open-weight or regional releases. With no major model drops in the past month and October resolution approaching, upcoming earnings or capability updates from the two leaders represent the main near-term swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$7,761End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a commanding market-implied lead at 69.5% for the top LiveBench Coding model by end of October 2026, reflecting trader confidence in its Claude series after strong July releases of Opus 5 and Fable 5 that posted leading scores on contamination-resistant coding evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified near 96% and competitive LiveBench category results. OpenAI trails at 26.5% following GPT-5.6 Sol and related variants that excel on some terminal and agentic tasks but lag on repository-scale coding benchmarks. Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen and Z.ai models top certain LiveCodeBench snapshots yet receive minimal odds, suggesting traders view LiveBench Coding as favoring the sustained frontier progress and benchmark consistency from Anthropic over open-weight or regional releases. With no major model drops in the past month and October resolution approaching, upcoming earnings or capability updates from the two leaders represent the main near-term swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$7,761End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding market-implied lead at 69.5% for the top LiveBench Coding model by end of October 2026, reflecting trader confidence in its Claude series after strong July releases of Opus 5 and Fable 5 that posted leading scores on contamination-resistant coding evaluations such as SWE-bench Verified near 96% and competitive LiveBench category results. OpenAI trails at 26.5% following GPT-5.6 Sol and related variants that excel on some terminal and agentic tasks but lag on repository-scale coding benchmarks. Chinese labs like Alibaba’s Qwen and Z.ai models top certain LiveCodeBench snapshots yet receive minimal odds, suggesting traders view LiveBench Coding as favoring the sustained frontier progress and benchmark consistency from Anthropic over open-weight or regional releases. With no major model drops in the past month and October resolution approaching, upcoming earnings or capability updates from the two leaders represent the main near-term swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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