Anthropic holds the market lead at 61.5% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models posting top or near-top LiveBench overall scores (around 82-83%) in August 2026 snapshots, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (81-82%) across reasoning, coding, and agentic categories. Recent releases from Anthropic have delivered consistent benchmark gains that traders view as durable through October, while OpenAI's July GPT-5.6 family launch narrowed but did not overtake the gap. Low odds for Google, Meta, and Chinese labs reflect their current mid-tier placements, with limited evidence of imminent frontier jumps. Key catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark updates before end-October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 62%
OpenAI 34%
Alibaba <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$10,938 Vol.
$10,938 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
62%
OpenAI
34%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 62%
OpenAI 34%
Alibaba <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$10,938 Vol.
$10,938 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,770 Vol.
62%
OpenAI
$1,126 Vol.
34%
Alibaba
$133 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$182 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$240 Vol.
1%
$158 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$222 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$245 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$229 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$250 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$182 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$192 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$192 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$261 Vol.
1%
Meta
$229 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$241 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$240 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$190 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$190 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$212 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$255 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the market lead at 61.5% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models posting top or near-top LiveBench overall scores (around 82-83%) in August 2026 snapshots, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (81-82%) across reasoning, coding, and agentic categories. Recent releases from Anthropic have delivered consistent benchmark gains that traders view as durable through October, while OpenAI's July GPT-5.6 family launch narrowed but did not overtake the gap. Low odds for Google, Meta, and Chinese labs reflect their current mid-tier placements, with limited evidence of imminent frontier jumps. Key catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark updates before end-October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$10,938End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the market lead at 61.5% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models posting top or near-top LiveBench overall scores (around 82-83%) in August 2026 snapshots, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (81-82%) across reasoning, coding, and agentic categories. Recent releases from Anthropic have delivered consistent benchmark gains that traders view as durable through October, while OpenAI's July GPT-5.6 family launch narrowed but did not overtake the gap. Low odds for Google, Meta, and Chinese labs reflect their current mid-tier placements, with limited evidence of imminent frontier jumps. Key catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark updates before end-October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$10,938End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the market lead at 61.5% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models posting top or near-top LiveBench overall scores (around 82-83%) in August 2026 snapshots, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol (81-82%) across reasoning, coding, and agentic categories. Recent releases from Anthropic have delivered consistent benchmark gains that traders view as durable through October, while OpenAI's July GPT-5.6 family launch narrowed but did not overtake the gap. Low odds for Google, Meta, and Chinese labs reflect their current mid-tier placements, with limited evidence of imminent frontier jumps. Key catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark updates before end-October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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