Anthropic commands 77.5% implied probability in the market for the best AI agent by end of October, driven by its mid-August general availability release of production-ready computer use and browser use toolsets, plus the Agent Skills API and expanded Claude Managed Agents features. These updates enable reliable multi-step desktop and web automation, persistent memory across sessions, and proactive enterprise agents, such as improved Slack integration that reads full context before intervening unprompted. OpenAI trails at 12.5% amid ongoing Codex and Agents SDK refinements, while other labs remain below 2%. With resolution approaching in roughly two months, further model releases or benchmark gains could still shift trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 78%
OpenAI 13%
Alibaba 1.7%
SpaceXAI <1%
$11,093 Vol.
$11,093 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
13%
Alibaba
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 13%
Alibaba 1.7%
SpaceXAI <1%
$11,093 Vol.
$11,093 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,869 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$802 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$209 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$201 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$196 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$216 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$224 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$220 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$229 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$229 Vol.
1%
Meta
$221 Vol.
<1%
$171 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$211 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$187 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$232 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$227 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$217 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$232 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands 77.5% implied probability in the market for the best AI agent by end of October, driven by its mid-August general availability release of production-ready computer use and browser use toolsets, plus the Agent Skills API and expanded Claude Managed Agents features. These updates enable reliable multi-step desktop and web automation, persistent memory across sessions, and proactive enterprise agents, such as improved Slack integration that reads full context before intervening unprompted. OpenAI trails at 12.5% amid ongoing Codex and Agents SDK refinements, while other labs remain below 2%. With resolution approaching in roughly two months, further model releases or benchmark gains could still shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$11,093End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands 77.5% implied probability in the market for the best AI agent by end of October, driven by its mid-August general availability release of production-ready computer use and browser use toolsets, plus the Agent Skills API and expanded Claude Managed Agents features. These updates enable reliable multi-step desktop and web automation, persistent memory across sessions, and proactive enterprise agents, such as improved Slack integration that reads full context before intervening unprompted. OpenAI trails at 12.5% amid ongoing Codex and Agents SDK refinements, while other labs remain below 2%. With resolution approaching in roughly two months, further model releases or benchmark gains could still shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$11,093End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands 77.5% implied probability in the market for the best AI agent by end of October, driven by its mid-August general availability release of production-ready computer use and browser use toolsets, plus the Agent Skills API and expanded Claude Managed Agents features. These updates enable reliable multi-step desktop and web automation, persistent memory across sessions, and proactive enterprise agents, such as improved Slack integration that reads full context before intervening unprompted. OpenAI trails at 12.5% amid ongoing Codex and Agents SDK refinements, while other labs remain below 2%. With resolution approaching in roughly two months, further model releases or benchmark gains could still shift trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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