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Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

icon for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 4.7%

UNRWA 4.3%

Pope Leo XIV 3.0%

Polymarket

$23,524,961 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 4.7%

UNRWA 4.3%

Pope Leo XIV 3.0%

Polymarket

$23,524,961 Vol.

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$291,159 Vol.

8%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$792,911 Vol.

5%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$2,044,843 Vol.

4%

icon for Pope Leo XIV

Pope Leo XIV

$814,602 Vol.

3%

icon for International Court of Justice

International Court of Justice

$907,954 Vol.

3%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$4,424,345 Vol.

2%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$787,321 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$686,171 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$1,271,579 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,468,722 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$850,919 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$628,669 Vol.

1%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,434,364 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$1,245,297 Vol.

<1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$867,129 Vol.

<1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$1,055,440 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$694,789 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$1,175,113 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$1,178,180 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$905,462 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Yulia Navalnaya leads Polymarket's 2026 Nobel Peace Prize field at 8% implied probability amid a fragmented field where no contender exceeds single digits, reflecting the Norwegian Nobel Committee's history of favoring human rights advocates over high-profile politicians. Her sustained visibility through anti-authoritarian campaigns and public appearances has built modest trader consensus, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 4.7% rests on Ukraine's defensive narrative without a decisive breakthrough. Organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice draw support from multilateral peace efforts, yet recent nominations highlight grassroots humanitarian work in conflicts like Sudan as potential swing factors. With the October announcement approaching, momentum could shift on any late diplomatic developments or precursor signals, underscoring the award's unpredictable campaign dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$23,524,961
End Date
Oct 10, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Yulia Navalnaya leads Polymarket's 2026 Nobel Peace Prize field at 8% implied probability amid a fragmented field where no contender exceeds single digits, reflecting the Norwegian Nobel Committee's history of favoring human rights advocates over high-profile politicians. Her sustained visibility through anti-authoritarian campaigns and public appearances has built modest trader consensus, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 4.7% rests on Ukraine's defensive narrative without a decisive breakthrough. Organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice draw support from multilateral peace efforts, yet recent nominations highlight grassroots humanitarian work in conflicts like Sudan as potential swing factors. With the October announcement approaching, momentum could shift on any late diplomatic developments or precursor signals, underscoring the award's unpredictable campaign dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$23,524,961
End Date
Oct 10, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 8%, followed by "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" has generated $23.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" is "Yulia Navalnaya" at just 8%, with "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" close behind at 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.