**With the 2027 Oscars still months away from nominations, trader sentiment reflects a wide-open Best Documentary Feature race where no film has consolidated support.** American Doctor leads the named contenders at 17.5% implied probability, followed closely by One in a Million, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, and Nuisance Bear in the low-to-mid teens, while Musk sits lower and dozens of other titles or the broad “Other” category absorb the balance. The field’s fragmentation stems from the early timing—August 2026 means most 2026 releases have only recently premiered or are still in festivals, with full eligibility, shortlisting, and branch voting not occurring until late 2026 and early 2027. American Doctor has generated the clearest recent momentum through its Sundance premiere, subsequent festival audience and jury awards, strong critical notices for its intimate access to American physicians treating patients in Gaza, and a timely August theatrical rollout that has kept it visible. Other early mentions, such as Alex Gibney’s Musk and various Neon or PBS titles, remain more speculative pending wider exposure and precursor results. Guild and critics’ awards, streaming metrics, and late-fall festival debuts will likely begin narrowing the field, but the current pricing underscores how documentary voters reward a mix of journalistic impact, formal ambition, and campaign visibility in a category historically prone to late surges or surprises.