Traders assign overwhelming probability to fewer than five official posts or statements from Iran's Supreme Leader during the August 21–28 window because the Leader's office and affiliated channels have maintained minimal public output since the fortieth-day commemorations concluded in mid-August. The new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued only limited video remarks amid the ongoing transition following the prior leader's martyrdom, with communications focused on previously scheduled religious events rather than new policy addresses or diplomatic updates. This pattern aligns with the office's established approach of infrequent direct messaging during periods of internal consolidation and heightened security. A major escalation in regional tensions, an unscheduled parliamentary address, or a formal diplomatic statement tied to ongoing negotiations could increase volume, though no such catalysts have materialized in the resolution period.