**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from @khamenei_ir during the August 25–September 1 window (80.5% implied probability), with 5–9 posts a distant second (15.5%).** This positioning reflects the account’s established low-volume pattern since the February 2026 transition following Ali Khamenei’s death, when posting shifted to archival quotes, commemorative messages, and occasional statements rather than daily commentary. Recent activity through mid-August shows gaps of several days between posts, consistent with the prior week’s similar market pricing <5 posts at 74%. Iran’s ongoing military reorganization under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the absence of scheduled high-profile events or escalations likely to trigger frequent official messaging in this period further support subdued output. Historical base rates for the account—typically a handful of posts or fewer in any given seven-day stretch—align with crowd-priced probabilities, while higher bins remain thinly traded due to the low likelihood of sudden volume spikes absent major diplomatic or conflict developments.