**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts (98.8% implied probability) because Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was martyred earlier in 2026, leaving his official @khamenei_ir account largely inactive.** Archival or automated content appears only sporadically, with tool data showing just one such item in the August 18–25 window. Commemorative activity around the 40th-day observances (mid-to-late August) has been handled by affiliated media accounts rather than the main channel. This low-output pattern aligns with the post-martyrdom transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Leader, whose own statements and official channels operate separately. Realistic challenges to the <5 outcome would require a sudden shift in account management, such as a coordinated release of multiple new archival statements or policy messages during the period—developments that have not occurred in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
<5 98.6%
5-9 1.4%
10-14 <1%
30-34 <1%
$19,201 Vol.
$19,201 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
<5
99%
5-9
1%
10-14
1%
15-19
<1%
20-24
<1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 98.6%
5-9 1.4%
10-14 <1%
30-34 <1%
$19,201 Vol.
$19,201 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
<5
$6,719 Vol.
99%
5-9
$3,525 Vol.
1%
10-14
$1,664 Vol.
1%
15-19
$1,456 Vol.
<1%
20-24
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
25-29
$1,019 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$1,445 Vol.
1%
35-39
$371 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$233 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$397 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$440 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$449 Vol.
<1%
60+
$470 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts (98.8% implied probability) because Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was martyred earlier in 2026, leaving his official @khamenei_ir account largely inactive.**
Archival or automated content appears only sporadically, with tool data showing just one such item in the August 18–25 window. Commemorative activity around the 40th-day observances (mid-to-late August) has been handled by affiliated media accounts rather than the main channel.
This low-output pattern aligns with the post-martyrdom transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Leader, whose own statements and official channels operate separately.
Realistic challenges to the <5 outcome would require a sudden shift in account management, such as a coordinated release of multiple new archival statements or policy messages during the period—developments that have not occurred in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$19,201End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts (98.8% implied probability) because Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was martyred earlier in 2026, leaving his official @khamenei_ir account largely inactive.**
Archival or automated content appears only sporadically, with tool data showing just one such item in the August 18–25 window. Commemorative activity around the 40th-day observances (mid-to-late August) has been handled by affiliated media accounts rather than the main channel.
This low-output pattern aligns with the post-martyrdom transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Leader, whose own statements and official channels operate separately.
Realistic challenges to the <5 outcome would require a sudden shift in account management, such as a coordinated release of multiple new archival statements or policy messages during the period—developments that have not occurred in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$19,201End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts (98.8% implied probability) because Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was martyred earlier in 2026, leaving his official @khamenei_ir account largely inactive.** Archival or automated content appears only sporadically, with tool data showing just one such item in the August 18–25 window. Commemorative activity around the 40th-day observances (mid-to-late August) has been handled by affiliated media accounts rather than the main channel. This low-output pattern aligns with the post-martyrdom transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Leader, whose own statements and official channels operate separately. Realistic challenges to the <5 outcome would require a sudden shift in account management, such as a coordinated release of multiple new archival statements or policy messages during the period—developments that have not occurred in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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