Market-implied odds assign a 64% probability to pauses at each of the remaining FOMC meetings through September, reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady given persistent inflation pressures and a still-resilient labor market. Recent economic releases, including CPI prints and employment data through mid-2026, have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain higher for longer than earlier projections anticipated. Fed communications continue to emphasize data dependence without signaling imminent easing, aligning with current Treasury yield levels and reduced market pricing for near-term cuts. The minimal 1.1% odds on a September cut highlight the significant hurdles posed by above-target inflation metrics, while the 35% allocation to “other” outcomes captures residual uncertainty around potential labor-market softening or revised guidance. Traders are now focused on the September CPI release and FOMC dot plot for any material shifts in this baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 64%
Other 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.0%
$789,774 Vol.
$789,774 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
64%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
35%
Pause–Pause–Pause 64%
Other 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.0%
$789,774 Vol.
$789,774 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$302,572 Vol.
64%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$89,298 Vol.
1%
Other
$342,028 Vol.
35%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds assign a 64% probability to pauses at each of the remaining FOMC meetings through September, reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady given persistent inflation pressures and a still-resilient labor market. Recent economic releases, including CPI prints and employment data through mid-2026, have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain higher for longer than earlier projections anticipated. Fed communications continue to emphasize data dependence without signaling imminent easing, aligning with current Treasury yield levels and reduced market pricing for near-term cuts. The minimal 1.1% odds on a September cut highlight the significant hurdles posed by above-target inflation metrics, while the 35% allocation to “other” outcomes captures residual uncertainty around potential labor-market softening or revised guidance. Traders are now focused on the September CPI release and FOMC dot plot for any material shifts in this baseline.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$789,774End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds assign a 64% probability to pauses at each of the remaining FOMC meetings through September, reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady given persistent inflation pressures and a still-resilient labor market. Recent economic releases, including CPI prints and employment data through mid-2026, have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain higher for longer than earlier projections anticipated. Fed communications continue to emphasize data dependence without signaling imminent easing, aligning with current Treasury yield levels and reduced market pricing for near-term cuts. The minimal 1.1% odds on a September cut highlight the significant hurdles posed by above-target inflation metrics, while the 35% allocation to “other” outcomes captures residual uncertainty around potential labor-market softening or revised guidance. Traders are now focused on the September CPI release and FOMC dot plot for any material shifts in this baseline.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$789,774End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign a 64% probability to pauses at each of the remaining FOMC meetings through September, reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady given persistent inflation pressures and a still-resilient labor market. Recent economic releases, including CPI prints and employment data through mid-2026, have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain higher for longer than earlier projections anticipated. Fed communications continue to emphasize data dependence without signaling imminent easing, aligning with current Treasury yield levels and reduced market pricing for near-term cuts. The minimal 1.1% odds on a September cut highlight the significant hurdles posed by above-target inflation metrics, while the 35% allocation to “other” outcomes captures residual uncertainty around potential labor-market softening or revised guidance. Traders are now focused on the September CPI release and FOMC dot plot for any material shifts in this baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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