Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026 have centered on strikes targeting Iranian islands including Kharg, which handles roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports, along with Hormuz and nearby outposts critical to Strait of Hormuz oversight. Precision raids in March and July damaged military assets and coastal defenses while sparing most oil infrastructure, triggering temporary halts in loadings that cut Iranian flows by about 40% at times and elevated global energy risk premiums. Recent satellite data show resumed VLCC activity at Kharg’s western terminal in mid-August amid partial blockade easing, yet persistent threats of seizure and diplomatic maneuvering over strait administration continue to influence trader positioning in related energy and commodity markets. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing mediation on Hormuz traffic and any follow-on military or regulatory developments affecting export continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$116,108 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
2%
$116,108 Vol.
August 31
$42,027 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$74,082 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026 have centered on strikes targeting Iranian islands including Kharg, which handles roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports, along with Hormuz and nearby outposts critical to Strait of Hormuz oversight. Precision raids in March and July damaged military assets and coastal defenses while sparing most oil infrastructure, triggering temporary halts in loadings that cut Iranian flows by about 40% at times and elevated global energy risk premiums. Recent satellite data show resumed VLCC activity at Kharg’s western terminal in mid-August amid partial blockade easing, yet persistent threats of seizure and diplomatic maneuvering over strait administration continue to influence trader positioning in related energy and commodity markets. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing mediation on Hormuz traffic and any follow-on military or regulatory developments affecting export continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$116,108End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026 have centered on strikes targeting Iranian islands including Kharg, which handles roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports, along with Hormuz and nearby outposts critical to Strait of Hormuz oversight. Precision raids in March and July damaged military assets and coastal defenses while sparing most oil infrastructure, triggering temporary halts in loadings that cut Iranian flows by about 40% at times and elevated global energy risk premiums. Recent satellite data show resumed VLCC activity at Kharg’s western terminal in mid-August amid partial blockade easing, yet persistent threats of seizure and diplomatic maneuvering over strait administration continue to influence trader positioning in related energy and commodity markets. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing mediation on Hormuz traffic and any follow-on military or regulatory developments affecting export continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$116,108End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges since early 2026 have centered on strikes targeting Iranian islands including Kharg, which handles roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports, along with Hormuz and nearby outposts critical to Strait of Hormuz oversight. Precision raids in March and July damaged military assets and coastal defenses while sparing most oil infrastructure, triggering temporary halts in loadings that cut Iranian flows by about 40% at times and elevated global energy risk premiums. Recent satellite data show resumed VLCC activity at Kharg’s western terminal in mid-August amid partial blockade easing, yet persistent threats of seizure and diplomatic maneuvering over strait administration continue to influence trader positioning in related energy and commodity markets. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing mediation on Hormuz traffic and any follow-on military or regulatory developments affecting export continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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