Traders assign the highest implied probability (51%) to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times across the August 31–September 2 Labor Day window, reflecting recent three-day brackets that settled in this moderate range amid lighter weekend rhythms. Musk’s established cadence of 15–40 daily posts, driven by commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments, supports this positioning, with holiday slowdowns historically capping volume absent breaking news. The 90-114 bracket at 41% and several higher bands near 40% price in upside from potential viral threads, product updates, or political exchanges, while sub-40 outcomes trail at 36% given his baseline activity. Recent August settlements, including multiple 40-64 resolutions, reinforce the market’s view that no major catalysts are currently aligned to push totals dramatically higher or lower during the three-day period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 49%
65-89 26%
<40 23%
140-164 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
<40
23%
40-64
49%
65-89
26%
90-114
7%
115-139
2%
140-164
9%
165-189
9%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 49%
65-89 26%
<40 23%
140-164 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
<40
$37 Vol.
23%
40-64
$59 Vol.
49%
65-89
$58 Vol.
26%
90-114
$37 Vol.
7%
115-139
$87 Vol.
2%
140-164
$428 Vol.
9%
165-189
$428 Vol.
9%
190-214
$8 Vol.
1%
215-239
$8 Vol.
1%
240+
$8 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 31 12:00 PM ET to September 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the highest implied probability (51%) to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times across the August 31–September 2 Labor Day window, reflecting recent three-day brackets that settled in this moderate range amid lighter weekend rhythms. Musk’s established cadence of 15–40 daily posts, driven by commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments, supports this positioning, with holiday slowdowns historically capping volume absent breaking news. The 90-114 bracket at 41% and several higher bands near 40% price in upside from potential viral threads, product updates, or political exchanges, while sub-40 outcomes trail at 36% given his baseline activity. Recent August settlements, including multiple 40-64 resolutions, reinforce the market’s view that no major catalysts are currently aligned to push totals dramatically higher or lower during the three-day period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 31 12:00 PM ET to September 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,158End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 31 12:00 PM ET to September 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the highest implied probability (51%) to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times across the August 31–September 2 Labor Day window, reflecting recent three-day brackets that settled in this moderate range amid lighter weekend rhythms. Musk’s established cadence of 15–40 daily posts, driven by commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments, supports this positioning, with holiday slowdowns historically capping volume absent breaking news. The 90-114 bracket at 41% and several higher bands near 40% price in upside from potential viral threads, product updates, or political exchanges, while sub-40 outcomes trail at 36% given his baseline activity. Recent August settlements, including multiple 40-64 resolutions, reinforce the market’s view that no major catalysts are currently aligned to push totals dramatically higher or lower during the three-day period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 31 12:00 PM ET to September 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,158End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (51%) to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times across the August 31–September 2 Labor Day window, reflecting recent three-day brackets that settled in this moderate range amid lighter weekend rhythms. Musk’s established cadence of 15–40 daily posts, driven by commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments, supports this positioning, with holiday slowdowns historically capping volume absent breaking news. The 90-114 bracket at 41% and several higher bands near 40% price in upside from potential viral threads, product updates, or political exchanges, while sub-40 outcomes trail at 36% given his baseline activity. Recent August settlements, including multiple 40-64 resolutions, reinforce the market’s view that no major catalysts are currently aligned to push totals dramatically higher or lower during the three-day period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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