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Tech·App

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?

icon for #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?
Tech·App

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?

Sep 4

Sep 4

ChatGPT 49%

Vinted 48%

NBA 2K HQ 26%

Claude by Anthropic 24%

Polymarket
NEW

ChatGPT 49%

Vinted 48%

NBA 2K HQ 26%

Claude by Anthropic 24%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for ChatGPT

ChatGPT

$0 Vol.

49%

icon for Vinted

Vinted

$0 Vol.

48%

icon for NBA 2K HQ

NBA 2K HQ

$0 Vol.

26%

icon for Claude by Anthropic

Claude by Anthropic

$14 Vol.

24%

icon for 7 Brew Coffee

7 Brew Coffee

$0 Vol.

6%

icon for Threads

Threads

$25 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).Close competition among high-engagement apps drives the tightly clustered 48-50% implied probabilities, as daily App Store rankings shift rapidly based on download volume and user retention rather than any single dominant leader. ChatGPT maintains strong positioning through ongoing refinements to its large language model features like voice mode and image generation, yet faces pressure from Claude's competing AI capabilities and niche challengers such as Vinted's shopping marketplace momentum or NBA 2K HQ's sports gaming appeal. Threads and 7 Brew Coffee trail due to narrower user spikes without recent catalysts. With September 4 falling near the Labor Day weekend, traders weigh potential short-term surges in entertainment or productivity apps against the lack of major confirmed releases or regulatory shifts that could decisively tilt the charts.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$39
End Date
Sep 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 7:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).Close competition among high-engagement apps drives the tightly clustered 48-50% implied probabilities, as daily App Store rankings shift rapidly based on download volume and user retention rather than any single dominant leader. ChatGPT maintains strong positioning through ongoing refinements to its large language model features like voice mode and image generation, yet faces pressure from Claude's competing AI capabilities and niche challengers such as Vinted's shopping marketplace momentum or NBA 2K HQ's sports gaming appeal. Threads and 7 Brew Coffee trail due to narrower user spikes without recent catalysts. With September 4 falling near the Labor Day weekend, traders weigh potential short-term surges in entertainment or productivity apps against the lack of major confirmed releases or regulatory shifts that could decisively tilt the charts.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$39
End Date
Sep 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 7:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ChatGPT" at 49%, followed by "Vinted" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?" is "ChatGPT" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Vinted" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.